one year later Ever cast An unusual storm in the Suez Canal due to a hurricane, one Crush points Or the most commonly used shipping ports, which pass through 12% of global trade, the logistics flow continues to be a high-level obstacle and warmly heats the mercury of inflation thermometers across the planet. The Mega-ship The merchant owned by the Japanese firm Shoei Kisen Kaisha became one of the emblems of the perfect hurricanes that were unleashed with special intensity and unusual frequency in the atmosphere of the post-Covid business cycle. Add the events that occurred a The eye of the storm Prices that have risen to unknown levels over four decades and are reminiscent of the crisis oil of the 1970s.
The Ever cast It seems morally abandoned that the flight of activity after a two-year period of the Great Pandemic does not allow shortcuts. It would not be so vertical (in V, more or less asymmetric, analysts suggest) nor would it have a clear horizon without turbulence, judging by the scarcity that still prevails in maritime transport. Freightos Baltic Index offers a compelling X-ray of this: one year after March 23, when Ever cast The cost of a 40-foot container in the Suez Canal – i.e. 60 cubic meters, 27 square meters and a maximum load of about 29 tons – is still approaching $ 10,000 when the movement of these blocks of goods approached $ 15,000. On certain voyages between Chinese and US ports.
The aftermath of the Covid-19 waves since the start of the worldwide vaccination campaign has not exactly helped to alleviate the cost of transporting goods. On the first anniversary of the collapse of the Suez Canal, the price remains almost seven times more expensive than in March 2020, when it was $ 1,400.
Reference Ever castThe Eiffel Tower recalls a large merchant ship capable of carrying 220,000 tons Titanic. Giant with clay feet sinking into cold reality. In this case, the Russian invasion was an iceberg, which was again hit by value chains, a few months after some relaxation of their destructive processes, during which maritime spending began to decline.
The market analysis covers the damage caused to the end user by the increase in shipping of goods for a period of 12 to 18 months. In other words, in the second month after the start of the conflict, delays in routes due to hostilities in Ukraine and geopolitical tensions between the oil, gas and raw material trade blocs indicate general price indices – this includes energy and food. In their shopping carts – will record a boom this year and at least until mid-2023, according to Nicholas Sly, economist at the Kansas Federation. New York Times.
Sly warns that this trend will continue even if transportation costs are reduced. “Essential goods have suffered the most, so citizens will suffer the most” from the inflation threat, which, in addition, will deter business investment and, consequently, economic activity.
Unusual consumer demand in the United States in advance of vaccination has already revealed a supply-side delay created by a lack of delivery of goods and services. The Boom Costs became more selective and therefore more expensive because complex value chains could not quickly recover their production lines. In the resumption of the economic cycle, the logistics industry has also been trapped by this correlation of forces between two major market variables. Jerome Powell himself warned after the Federal Reserve raised its first rate hike almost a month after its invasion of Ukraine: “The reactivation of industrial and business systems took longer than originally expected. ”
We should not forget the consequences of the coronavirus, which is still crucial in China, the world’s largest factory that has ordered the detention of 17.5 million people in Shenzhen – for removal – and Shanghai, the financial lung whose 25 million inhabitants are quarantined in a scrupulous division. Queues and delays in loading and unloading operations are accumulating in ports in China and Southeast Asia.
European and British bans on Russian-flagged vessels entering ports under their jurisdiction have hampered the shipping of merchant ships, which handle 80% of global trade. While shipping companies – owners of container ships, trucks and fleets, and shipping lines – are making money: Revenue of at least $ 150,000 million in 2021, according to Clarkson, the industry’s comprehensive service provider. This amount – similar to the GDP of Algeria, Qatar, Kuwait or Morocco – arose after strong demand for goods and social constraints, and because of obstacles in the value chains of companies, after the closure and reset of their factories and production centers. According to Clarkson Consultants in the latter part of the year.
Guy Platten, Secretary General of the International Chamber of Commerce, is recognized Foreign Policy Some aggravating circumstances arising from the war in Ukraine. One of them is the greater concern and sophistication in trade repatriation procedures, whose workforce has already been reduced by Covid-19. Sailors of Ukrainian or Russian descent do not want to return to their home countries because they suggest they may have to fight. The other sailors on the Russian-flagged ships are not from this country and where did they stay? And first of all, how do those who want to return to Russia pay in the case of international companies, in dollars or rubles?
Similarly, Cormac McGarry, a logistics analyst at another consulting firm, Control Risks, expresses himself for whom Western sanctions and Russian retorts have “had a major additional impact” as many shipping companies struggle to find an alternative. Routes to the leafy route of Russian ports.
The International Monetary Fund, through its Asia-Pacific Economic Manager, Ian Career-Swallow, acknowledges that spending has multiplied by seven over the 18 months that elapsed between the onset of the health crisis in March 2020 and the fall of six months. Given ran away and Energy convulsion In Europe. A year and a half, when the truck crisis due to Brexit also worsened, which further worried the commercial collapse and rising prices.
In a survey of 143 countries over the past 30 years, the International Monetary Fund has found a direct link between maritime spending and inflation rates. “When transportation tariffs double, IPCs increase by an average of seven-tenths.” And most importantly – they emphasize – “its effect is quite sustainable and lasts up to a year, up to 18 months.” All this implies that the growth recorded in 2021 will increase inflation by an additional 1.5 points in 2022.
In its assessment, the Fund highlights the different effects of country-wide maritime inflation on inflation. Those who import more than they consume will have more pressure on the price, as well as those who massively buy goods that come from more complex and distant routes. Similarly, countries with more credible monetary policies will be able to more accurately mitigate the second wave of prices. IMF forecasts point to a curse Ever cast It will continue “until the end of 2022.”
Source: El Diario
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