Gas Power Game – Russia: Pipeline Maintenance Likely to Take Longer

Russian energy giant Gazprom does not want to commit to the future of energy supply in the EU. Maintenance work on the Baltic Sea pipeline Nord Stream 1 – the main supply pipeline – should be completed this Thursday (July 21). But it still lacks a key turbine that Canada has long held back due to sanctions following Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

In Russia, no one expects it to be reinstalled on the last day of maintenance. This has consequences for the gas supply in Germany and Europe.

Gas deliveries further curtailed
“The reliable operation of the Nord Stream gas pipeline and the supply of European consumers depend on it,” Gazprom announced this weekend. The company complains that there are no documents from the German company Siemens Energy confirming the return of the gas turbine. However, it is important for the Portovaya compressor station, which in turn is essential for the operation of Nord Stream 1.

Even before the 10-day maintenance work started, Gazprom had throttled the gas flow through the pipeline by 60 percent. This pushed up already high gas prices.

Broken turbine fuel crisis
With regard to the maintenance work, Moscow emphasizes that Russia wants to continue to fulfill its obligations as a gas supplier in the future. But Europe’s energy crisis has long revolved around the turbine, as the German government fears Russia could use its absence as an excuse to cut supplies altogether.

However, when asked whether Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin would turn on the gas tap again, Moscow did not give a clear answer. The only thing that is clear is that Russia is most likely to shirk responsibility for potential difficulties. Gazprom also repeatedly emphasizes that it has pointed out that gas storage facilities in Europe are barely full.

Russia blames Ukraine
The state-owned company also blames Ukraine for the situation, as less than half of the possible daily delivery volume is routed through the country’s transit network. Ukraine, which still pumps some 40 million cubic meters of gas a day to Western Europe despite Moscow’s war of aggression, would prefer the EU to forgo supplies from Russia altogether. The Yamal-Europa gas pipeline has also been shut down because Poland refused to pay for the gas in rubles, as Putin had demanded.

From a Russian point of view, the others should always be responsible for the problems. Given the energy crisis with high prices and uncertain supply, Moscow is reminded that there is a very simple solution to the situation: Nord Stream 2. The gas pipeline is ready, but has never been commissioned because of the war in Ukraine.

Mutual dependence still high
Meanwhile, Russian energy and finance expert Marcel Salikhov points out that Moscow relies on revenues from gas sales and uses them to fund its national budget. Nor is it possible to simply divert the quantities sold to Europe and sell them elsewhere at the usual prices in the West.

“It also cannot be diverted to China. There are no free-capacity gas pipelines there,” said the chairman of the Moscow Institute of Energy and Finance of the School of Economics.

Redirect “not so easy”
In addition, the Russian gas liquefaction plants are running at full capacity. If the gas tap is turned off, the country would have to significantly reduce its production volumes, Salichow says. “But that’s not so easy either.” Better supply the domestic market with the excess quantities? The expert explains that more than two-thirds of the gas produced in Russia is already used in the country. Consumption cannot simply be increased.

Russian production facilities are shut down
The sanctions of the West have already shut down many production facilities in Russia. And even if the sometimes poor connection of the population in rural areas to the gas network in Russia is an issue, experts do not expect expensive pipelines to be installed everywhere. Gazprom earns less with it than with exports.

Russia’s aim should therefore be to continue supplying the EU – albeit under clear conditions. Last but not least, this should mean ending the sanctions pressure in the war in Ukraine.