July 2023 EITB Focus on the 23J, the Basque citizens follow the election campaign from a distance

The next general election of 23J No They have generated more interest than other previous appointments in Basque society, according to the latest EITB Focus. Indeed, the EITB’s macro survey shows that only 9% of citizens of the Basque Autonomous Community (CAV) have followed it in a “more intensive” way, a close follow-up that rises to 18% in Navarre. The majority of those surveyed are thus divided between those who have followed the campaign in the same way as on previous occasions (about 44%) and those who do not normally follow it (almost 4 out of 10).

The poll, conducted from June 28 to July 11 through 3,315 telephone surveys (2,400 in the CAV and 915 in the Foral community), also asked Basque voters who they think will win the election. Most bets on a victory of the PP against the PSOE: more than half of the respondents (56%) in Navarre bet on this possibility, while in the CAV 4 out of 10 believe.

Less than a quarter of citizens see Pedro Sánchez as the winner. Curiously, it should be noted that it is the younger voters (aged 18-44/50) who most predict this victory of the ‘popular’ Alberto Nuñez Feijóo, with percentages above 60% in Navarre and 45% in the BAC.

Asked whether the parties Basques and Navarrese will have more influence in Madrid, the majority reacted negatively after 23 J, although this perception is more widespread in Navarre, where 6 out of 10 respondents hold the opinion. In the BAC, both options are more aligned, although ‘no’ is the most frequently mentioned option (44% versus 36%).

The Aitor Esteban jeltzale, the highest rated in Euskadi

The macro survey also analyzed the level of knowledge and assessment of the party leaders of the various parties. Only two candidates are approved: Mertxe Aizpurua (EH Bildu) and Aitor Esteban (PNV), and the latter is the highest rated—achieving a 6.5 out of 10compared to 5.7 for the Sovereignist candidate, the highest rating given to a politician in an EITB Focus—.

Now under 5, Patxi López (PSE-EE) and Lander Martínez (Sumar), with 4.7 and 4.6 respectively, battle for third place. The ‘popular’ Javier de Andrés gets the worst grade: a 2.2.

The socialist and former Lehendakari Patxi López is the best-known candidate for Basque citizenship (92%), and the two most highly regarded candidates, Esteban and Aizpurua, acquire about 70% of the knowledge. Half of the Basque citizens say they know both De Andrés (PP) and Martínez (Sumar).

No candidate from Navarra gets the approval

The candidates from Navarre, on the other hand, do not cross the 5 out of 10 threshold for citizenship of the Foral community, although the head of the list by EH Bildu, Call Pozueta, it rubs with a 4.9. Immediately following Idoia Villanueva (Sumar) and María Solana (Geroa Bai), both with a 4.5. The regionalist and socialist candidates, Alberto Catalán and Santos Cerdán, remain at 4, while Eduardo Gutiérrez de Cabiedes (Vox) and Sergio Sayas (PP) close the list as the worst rated (both with 3.2 out of 10).

The former president of the Navarra parliament, Alberto Catalán (UPN), and the former deputy of the UPN, Sergio Sayas (PP), are the best-known leaders, with 61% and 58% knowing them respectively. At some distance (he is cited by almost 46%), the socialist candidate Santos Cerdán. It should also be noted that the head of the top rated list, Bel Pozueta, gains knowledge below 35%, a similar percentage also achieved by the purple candidate Idoia Villanueva (Sumar) or María Solana (Geroa Bai).

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Technical data sheets:

CAV (gicere)

2,400 people living in the BAC (800 in each historical area). Em= ±2.00%, 95% confidence level, p=q=0.5, for BAC data, ±3.46% for data by historical area. Random sample stratified by historical area, municipality, gender and age 28.2% of the surveys were conducted in Basque and the remaining 71.8% in Spanish Total results weighted by population size of the municipalities surveyed.

Navarre (Sigmated)

915 people living in Navarre (300 in Pamplona and 615 in the other municipalities) Em= ± 3.3%, confidence level of 95.5% and assuming variables with two equally divided categories.