all the keys to the Andalusian Parliament elections

The election campaign of the elections for the Parliament of Andalusia (Spain) held on Sunday, June 19, will conclude this Friday with the final rallies of the candidates. PSOE-A headliners, Juan Espadas; PP-A, Juanma Moreno; Burgers (Cs), Juan Marín; Vox, Macarena Olona and Adelante Andalucía’s coalition, Teresa Rodríguez, have chosen Seville to conclude their campaigns, while the head of the list for Por Andalucía, Inmaculada Nieto, has chosen Malaga for its closing campaign event.

After 10 days of demonstrations and electoral actions, the campaign ends with a number of open questions, such as the effect that the situation of the Spanish political panorama will have in the elections, the struggle for the vote of those who voted for abstention or for Ciudadanos. in 2018, the impact of the current economic crisis, or any subsequent appointments. These are the keys

The roof of Juanma Moreno (PP) and its “red lines”

All polls agree that board chairman and PP candidate, Juanma Moreno, will be awarded a large majority on whether it will be enough to merge more than all left-wing parties, which would open the door. open to try a solo. government without a coalition with Vox.

The most foreseeable scenario, however, is that of a necessary PP-Vox pact to achieve an absolute majority in parliament, something Moreno tries to avoid by even appealing to the disenchanted socialist vote. The popular party does not rule out a repeat of the elections if there are “priceless” requests from Vox and has already marked “red lines”: the Autonomy Statute and no “step back” in gender violence or in the fight against climate change.

The Battle of Swords (PSOE) to Get Back 400,000 Lost Voters

The PSOE-A lost 400,000 voters in the last Andalusian election with Susana Díaz compared to the previous one, which largely opposed abstention, so the big challenge for the current candidate, Juan Espadas, is to recover for the cause outside that electorate.

The polls show no signs of recovery, with a PSOE locked in the same run of seats it now holds, but that niche of voters would be decisive. Juanma Moreno herself asks his own not to be overconfident because that mood could lead to a turnaround.

“Olona Effect” (Vox)

The election of Macarena Olona as Vox candidate for the board is the protagonist of part of the election campaign in Andalusia, as one of the most visible faces and with the most difficult profile of this formation at the state level, but also because of the controversy generated by its dubious registration.

One of the keys will be whether there will be an “Olona effect”, which will encourage a sector of the citizens to vote for Vox, or whether there will be fears of its joining the regional government, which would have two derivatives : waking up the left-wing abstinence, but also to drift into the PP part of that “useful mood” that thinks it’s better for Moreno to rule alone.

The 21 Citizens seats

The foreseeable collapse of Ciudadanos in the elections, in line with what is happening nationally and in other communities, will yield a very juicy pie to divide, 21 deputies seeking to attract all parties to their cause. Their candidate, Juan Marín, has already said he will leave if they win one or two seats.

In principle, it seems that almost all these seats would go to the PP, where they left almost four years ago, but it is expected that socialist voters and a section of the citizen disenchanted with the two major parties will also stray to Vox .

Left

The division and subsequent grouping into coalitions of the most left-wing parties in Andalusia is a difficult puzzle to put together for a voter who has multiple ballots to choose from and is likely to be in doubt as to who is on each vote, which can divide the votes with as consequence of seat loss.

The coalition for Andalusia includes IU, Podemos and Más País, but the purple formation is officially out because they were late for registration. In addition, the voter will find with him a ballot paper from Adelante Andalucía in which the face of Teresa Rodríguez, former leader of Podemos, will appear.

Central government governance, under the microscope

Spain’s government, chaired by Pedro Sánchez, faces a new election exam alongside a candidate Juan Espadas backed by the socialist leader, making the Andalusian election a direct test for future general elections.

It evaluates how citizens perceive Sánchez’s management in central government, but also United We Can’s position in that Executive following recent controversies between partners such as those of the Sahara or political espionage.

The relief in the PP with Feijóo

The arrival of Alberto Núñez Feijóo seems to have relaunched the PP in the state-level polls, with the consequences it could have for the Andalusian elections, in which a significant participation of the Galician is expected, who is also taking his first electoral exam, all the way in. line with Juanma Moreno.

The latest CIS is already putting the PP on the heels of the PSOE to reach Moncloa.

The economic crisis, electoral gasoline at the price of gold

The Andalusian voter will go to the polls on June 19 in the midst of a major economic crisis, with electricity or fuel prices skyrocketing, something state-level opposition parties have used throughout the campaign to appease voters.

the national mood

The traditional leadership of the PSOE in rural Andalusia has been exhausted in recent years and that breadbasket on the left is starting to run dry with mounting unrest in the farming and hunting sector, although they are still in the lead.

That anger is channeled by Vox, who presents himself as a defender of the Andalusian countryside, and is also absorbed by the PP, which has worked for years to convince the agricultural world beyond the themes. The PSOE are aware of this leak and that linking the fuel price hike demonstrations to the far right has not helped.

On June 19… in the middle of a heat wave

The election appointment comes in full heat wave. In the last election, which took place in December 2018, there was an abstention of 41.35%. The weather and temperatures will be radically different this time, which is why many pundits are speculating that many undecided voters will not exercise their right to vote because of the extreme heat on the streets. Who benefits from the heat? It’s the big question mark.