Who has benefited from it – What the large increase means for the parties

1) This time, the ÖVP was the victim of the second largest migration in the history of voter flow analysis. Nearly 450,000 voters, who had mainly voted for Sebastian Kurz last time, were lost to the FPÖ. This is not surprising given the great dissatisfaction with the federal government and the perceived negative development in Austria.

2) The FPÖ was the major beneficiary. But a huge voter migration has been taking place for decades, mainly between her and the ÖVP. Sometimes the Gigl wins, sometimes the Gogl. What should not be overlooked, however, is that Herbert Kickl & Co. once again convinced more than 600,000 non-voters from 2019 to vote for the Freedom Party.

3) The SPÖ failed miserably with exactly the same strategy. A total of 180,000 votes were lost to non-voters. According to Adam Riese, with 60,000 mobilized non-voters, there is still a net deficit of 120,000 votes. That was the high price for an ideological narrowing: Andreas Babler managed to win votes from the left-liberal Greens in the cities with his clear left-wing course. Centrist-oriented ex-SPÖ supporters stayed at home.

4) Given the dissatisfaction with the government, there was not much to gain for the Greens. A repeat of the record result from 2019 was always considered utopian. The problem, however, is that the party of Werner Kogler and Leonore Gewessler has gone in all directions: they have lost tens of thousands of votes, to the SPÖ and NEOS as well as to the KPÖ.

5) The NEOS have the best result in their history. The bottom line is that this is not so much due to voter migration from the heavily losing ÖVP, but rather that the gains came from former Green voters and non-voters. Considering that many NEOS politicians have a past in the ÖVP, more could probably have been achieved.

What does all this mean for the future? If, against expectations, the FPÖ and ÖVP agree on a government, they can be assured of a common majority in the long term. Unless there’s another scandal. The SPÖ must broaden its target groups. Babler should not only be a messiah for the purely left-wing doctrine. The NEOS have room for improvement, and the Greens should regain their old image as an opposition party.