Alonso (2nd), Sainz (3rd) and the Miami rain: these are your racing options today

Fernando Alonso is 2nd in F1 Miami GP this Sunday (9:30 pm / DAZN F1) behind ‘poleman’ ‘Czech’ Perez and precedes the Carlos Sainz (3rd), included Verstappen in 9th position after qualifying yesterday. What can Fernando Alonso and Carlos Sainz do in today’s race? This depends on many factors which we examine below.

Podium race pace for Alonso

Under normal conditions, the Asturian should think about the podium. And Sainz, who fought to be behind the Asturian. The strength of the car can be seen in the speed of the race on Sundays and how well his Aston Martin takes care of the tires. The Silverstone car has been the second best car in the race after Red Bull in 3 of the 4 events held so far, with less tire wear than the Ferrari. Despite the improvement from Maranello, Alonso should have more pace than Sainz in the long run. Not that Red Bull of Pérez and Verstappen, much better, especially on the long stretches of Miami.

Alonso wanted to pass ‘Checo’ at the start, but knew that if nothing unusual happened, the Mexican should pass him again due to his faster pace on the straight and also Verstappen despite starting 9th.

However, in the Miami race there may be surprises. Is second place or Fernando Alonso’s 33rd F1 victory possible in Miami? There are other variables that can make today’s appointment crazy or even a lottery. Alonso can fish in turbulent rivers.

The downpour in the early morning

The water that fell that morning cleared the track. This means that the little rubber deposited on the track is no longer there. And that, on a new asphalt like Miami, can be synonymous with madness and uncertainty. Drivers will lose grip, tires will struggle to warm up and the walls will be close. The start can be difficult, especially in the middle of the peloton. The track should be reset like in FP1, where there were many driving mistakes and braking passes. There can be accidents and safety cars that change the race at any time.

Starting from 2nd, Alonso had the disadvantage of starting in the dirty zone and Sainz could have the advantage of starting in the clean zone. But the water that fell that morning should be equal to the conditions. On this delicate asphalt, the chance of one of the Red Bulls making a mistake increases, but Fernando or Sainz will also hit the tails. “If it rains it will be a new world,” said Alonso after the ‘qualy’.

Running water?

Forecasts indicate that there could be more rain before the race and possibly during. That can lead to more uncertainty and mistakes. The lottery may be higher. Fernando and Sainz can either fish in a turbulent river or they can perish. The man from Oviedo has a very good podium option in the dry, under normal conditions, and that means consistently scoring very good points. But the Aston Martin’s performance on this track in wet or intermediate conditions is unknown. There may be room for surprise.

safety vehicles

For Fernando Alonso to get the most out of his race, when the safety cars come out in the event of an accident will be key. In the dry, the driver from Oviedo has a car that lowers the tires less than his direct rivals, however, in a theoretically one-stop race, the moment a ‘Safety’ comes out can be important.

Fernando knows this, having already been hurt by a safety car in Baku in his battle for the podium with Leclerc. At that appointment, at the moment when the Spaniards could scratch Charles for more time, when the Monegasque was already suffering wear on the medium tires, the ‘Salvation’ entered. That allowed Charles to put on the hard tires, something that was key for him to reach the end keeping his podium position very close.

So, again, safety vehicles can be key to everyone’s strategy and front-end options.

Safety cars will also help Max Verstappen get closer to the lead. As long as ‘Checo’ distanced himself in the race, a ‘Safety’ could regroup the cars and end any advantage. There, in a hand-to-hand fight on a delicate track, anything can happen.

The Red Bulls

Another factor is in the hands of the pilots. On such a tricky track, mistakes can accumulate. If the race puts Pérez and Verstappen in the first two positions and they both have to shoot, disappointments can come. In Baku, with a tighter grip, ‘Checo’ and Max were seen buying the lottery by hitting the wall several times during their battle for the rhythms. In Miami, the asphalt is more delicate and one mistake can end up in a spin and against the wall.

tire

It has to be seen if there are pilots betting on the use of soft tires in the race if their approach or the elements that marked the appointment allow it. In Q3, Leclerc’s accident left the top drivers without the option of setting a final time with a new set of soft tires and that could be a weapon to consider. Another element to add to a race that can get crazy.