Carlos Sainz and politics in F1: Why Red Bull and Mercedes think differently?

The driving market remains one of the main topics in the paddock in Monaco. And specifically, that of Carlos Sainz. MD spoke to many people from the ‘Great Circus’ about this and the conversations usually lead to a similar question: “Because?”. Carlos Sainz has a great poster in all teams for his speed, perseverance, car development, tremendous work, age and his great team spirit.

He meets all the necessary requirements and is looking for any big team that should allow him to continue driving a winning team in 2025 as he is doing now in Ferrari. But at the moment, neither Mercedes seems to have a plan Sainz, by Red Bull. Because? Again, the answer has more to do with the politics that are so important in F1, something that unfortunately, often outweighs the qualities of a driver or what he can contribute to a team.

In the paddock, many agree that on merit and all that has been shown, Carlos should be in one of those two cars next year. But in F1, sportsmanship is often less important and right now, although Sainz is still waiting, the pieces don’t seem to fit together. Should I wait longer? That’s one of the issues.

It is no secret that in the paddock it is almost taken for granted that Carlos has few options to qualify for two seats. Of course, in F1 nothing can be confirmed and anything can happen. Especially if Pérez can’t get out of his slump in results and starts to fail. Red Bull may be skeptical. Or maybe that doesn’t even count anymore. Things could also change if Mercedes finally opens its eyes. But its hard. Or if Verstappen will leave a gap at Red Bull by leaving for Mercedes, something that can only be speculated on if the champion sees McLaren eat his team’s toast for the rest of the year.

Toto thinks about Kimi

On the one hand, in Mercedes, Toto Wolff, Team Principal of the team, openly teased Max Verstappen. It is his dream, but the Dutchman knows that if he stays with Red Bull in 2025 he will be the favorite for the title, but not in the star team. And while he sees it as almost impossible, the Austrian seems determined to promote the young talent of the junior team, the Italian Andrea Kimi Antonelliwhich has already been tested in an F1.

In his 17 yearsthe one from Bologna is in his debut year in Formula 2, a category in which he arrived after a surprising leap: without first going through F3, directly from the European Regional Formula. Wolff asked that the boy be left alone and that no pressure be put on him. But if he quickly promotes him to F1 with Russell, that’s exactly what it will cause: maximum pressure on a driver who shouldn’t risk burning out.

Because of this, few realize that Kimi has to be the main candidate for Mercedes next year when he still has a lot to improve in the silver class. Leclerc previously went through a ‘B’ team like Alfa Romeo before jumping to Ferrari and he did it after sweeping F2, more experience, better prepared. Russell, for example, spent several years at Williams before taking over from Bottas. Even Verstappen went through Toro Rosso, although Max’s case is a more special case because he made the jump from F3 directly to F1, something that is hard to see.

But in Antonelli’s case, the Italian can go directly to the star team without first going through another team like Williams where he can gain experience from the pressure to win.

Sainz could be the perfect candidate for that seat to continue to show his worth while Kimi goes on some campaign. But he is his own manager Toto Wolff. He is in charge of his career. White and bottle. Again, the importance of politics in F1, as it was in its day Valtteri Bottasalso a Wolff driver, when he was chosen to accompany Hamilton as a loyal squire.

Pérez must continue

On the other hand, many people think that ‘Checo’ Perez will renew for Red Bull soon.

Inside the internal turmoil experienced in recent months in the champion team with the case Horner and the internal battles for power in the group, the priority of the group of energy drinks to maintain Verstappen. It seems incredible: this time, the driver gives the impression of being more important than the team if the team should be in the lead: Without the dominant car, Max I can’t win.

Without Max and with another fast driver, Red Bull can do it. But this equation is not very important. The upside down life. Max’s father keeps threatening a possible departure for Mercedes. And at Red Bull they want to calmly get things back to normal for Max. So, Keeping ‘Checo’ by his side, leaving things as they are, seems the most comfortable for the Dutchman and his entourage to proceed. More than the arrival of Sainz, who in recent years has discussed the leadership of Ferrari with Leclerc. Furthermore, ‘Checo’ was loyal to Horner and showed his support to his boss in the most difficult moments.

The election of Carlos Sainz

So, from piloting a Ferrari and aim for a Red Bull or a MercedesSainz may start driving a car below his level in 2025. Maybe Sauber (Audi in 2026), to lead the ambitious long-term project.

Maybe Williamsa better choice in the short term and with a good Mercedes engine for the arrival of the new rules in 2026 And then there is Alpine in low hours and haas.

The choice of Audi This means linking to one brand as the head of the project, without looking at other groups. Williamsa way to continue to show its speed in the next two years while waiting for the market to open another door, maybe return to Ferrari if in 2027 Hamilton or Leclerc are gone. Or to Red Bull if ‘Checo’ is gone by then. What is the right choice? Sainz should bet. But no one knows what color will come up on that roulette wheel. That is the question for now unless there is a radical change that should never be removed from F1.

But if there’s one thing that’s clear in the paddock, it’s that If next year Sainz isn’t in a great car it won’t be because of the hands. It will be because of politics. Pure and hard.