The polls indicate Lula as a favorite in the first round of the Brazilian elections next Sunday, but in the environment of the controversial current president they already speak of “fraud” if they lose. Brazilian democracy is risking its future
This Sunday, the whole of Brazil will play one of the most important matches in its history. It will not be about the world title in football, his favorite sport. No. It is a match for the future of Brazilians. And its democracy is also at stake, growing again or stagnating. progress or delay. This is the presidential election, and in this country that seems happy but where sorrow knows no end, as Vinicius de Moraes sang, almost everything is at stake. The top favorites to occupy the Planalto Palace are well known to the Brazilian people. The current president, Jair Messias Bolsonaro (67 years old), and the former president between 2003-2010, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (76 years old).
Four other candidates have entered the dispute, but with few options to lead one of the largest countries in the world, one of the most populous (nearly 214 million inhabitants), with one of the highest death rates from the COVID virus pandemic ( 685,428) and also affected (34.5 million confirmed cases), with an inflation rate of (8.8%), with an unemployment rate of 13.2%, of which 33.1 million people are believed not to need to eat on a daily basis. And especially a country where its citizens think there is great corruption.
Some analysts have labeled this poll call as the election of fear. A fear that has multiple causes. Firstly, because there is a weakening of institutional trust, because the population mistrusts the Supreme Court, including the Supreme Electoral Court and the electronic ballot boxes. Suspicions are being fueled to a great extent by the current presidency, which has stated on more than one occasion that if it doesn’t win the election, the evidence of fraud will be obvious.
This institutional disbelief brings us to a point of concern. Depending on the outcome, especially if Lula is elected, it is certain that part of the population, supported by President Bolsonaro, will not accept it. So we run the risk of repeating what happened in the United States regarding the rejection of the election results,” said Juliana Bertholdi, a lawyer and professor of human rights at the PUCPR (Pontifical Catholic University of Paraná), in Curitiba. newspaper. .
“The second fear is based on military interference in Brazilian democracy, also endorsed by the presidency. It’s hard to make accurate analyzes when we’re characters in the story, but I view this interference with great trepidation. However, it is important to point out that in these elections, the Brazilian courts and much of the media are paying particular attention to implementing institution-building and providing the greatest possible transparency to the electoral process,” added Bertholdi.
The latest poll, conducted by the IPEC institute shortly after the only debate between the candidates, gives Lula da Silva the first round winner with a 16-point lead (47%) over Bolsonaro’s 31%. In an eventual runoff election, the former president’s victory would be 54% and his rival’s 35%. The televised debate, which had a record audience, was notable for the passion and tension and personal accusations between the two main candidates, especially by Bolsonaro against Lula, whom he repeatedly called “ex-prisoner” and in which he also attacked the current president a journalist, who he said made it seem like “you sleep thinking about me”, and “you are a disgrace to Brazilian journalism”.
Nothing new comes out of the mouth of a politician, formerly a military man, who in most of his speeches embraces the defense of guns, the death penalty, homophobia, misogyny, racism. Nothing strange about a Bolsonaro who, perhaps because his middle name is ‘Messiah’, believes he is protected by the divine. And nothing unusual in a head of state attending Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral in London and delivering a speech from the balcony where the Brazilian ambassador lives, spending two seconds offering condolences and two minutes continuing his campaign election, in a attempt to get the results of the polls. There he repeats his favorite phrases: «We are a country that does not want to discuss the legalization of drugs, that does not want to talk about the legalization of abortion and a country that does not accept gender ideology», to conclude with his favorite slogan: « God , Country, Family and Freedom.
The 580 Days in Jail
The doubts about Lula do not lie precisely in that period when he was persecuted and spent 580 days in prison, charged with corruption. During the televised debate, he had the opportunity to react strongly to Bolsonaro: “He knows the reasons why I was imprisoned. But with all this process I’ve been through, I’m cleaner today than he or any other family member of his because I was tried and considered innocent. Paulo Sotero, former director of the Brazil Institute of the Wilson Center, told CNN: “Brazil is experiencing a tragic situation caused by us Brazilians, by our country’s economic elites, by the corruption that politicians are not free from. Lula gives today perhaps the image of the past, of a tired man, and Brazil is a young country in need of renovation».
“The surveys allow us to draw some conclusions: women, blacks, indigenous peoples, the poorest and the population of the Northeast mostly vote for Lula,” says Juliana Bertholdi. “Bolsonaro has encountered a lot of resistance from these populations and has not found the right discourse to draw these votes, especially from women. In the first debate, he was absolutely rude to a journalist, which went down very badly with the women. In his speech at the UN, he used false data on the decline in femicides that had little impact at the national level. To try and turn the situation around, the first lady has played a very central role in the election campaign, especially in seeking the voice of evangelical women,” the lawyer analyzes.
Other analysts believe that Bolsonaro’s voters are generally men, with higher education levels, who use the economic slogan as the main justification for their vote, as well as conservatives, such as evangelicals, who support anti-Israel agendas. women’s reproductive rights. There are also those who have an insurmountable rejection of Lula for the situations facing the Lava-Jato investigation, which is why they vote for Bolsonaro. Recently, the polls also speak of a “useful vote” for both candidates, of moderate voters seeking a “third way” but who, due to their absolute rejection of their opponent, end up voting for either Lula or Bolsonaro.
Lula, trade unionist, leader of the PT (Workers’ Party), bases his options on the country he left, where he advanced in the fight against hunger, and in a country that people miss today. “A country of employment, with the right to a dignified life, with your head held high.” Bolsonaro highlighted Brazil’s economic improvement during his tenure at the 77th UN meeting and stated that the country will reach the end of the year with an economy in full recovery, saying it had reduced poverty and unemployment.
However, the challenges of the elected president are very great. At the international level, Brazil has lost some of its leadership role and suffers from a lack of diplomatic credibility not seen in any government before. It is a Brazil that many analysts say has returned to the map of hunger from which it emerged in 2014, that has seen the number of femicides and homophobic/transphobic murders skyrocket, and that has deforested the Amazon like never before.
If Lula eventually gets the most votes, fear will be aroused in the reaction of Bolsonaro, who for months spoke of possible fraud and very few do not rule out rejecting the result and inciting a coup.
Source: La Verdad
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