What is the new stage of the Ukraine war and why is there no solution?

How does the war in Ukraine end? The answer, at this time, is not at all obvious, and for this reason, both sides are preparing for a test of forces in the Donbas, after Russia was forced to abandon its attempt to take Kiev.

Russia’s current military activity seems to support the goals of the war, which are in fact less ambitious: the intention now is to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk provinces declared by the self-proclaimed separatist republics that Vladimir Putin recognized before the end of the war. Out.

On Friday, satellites spotted a Russian military convoy 12 kilometers long, about 80 kilometers east of Kharkov, and its probable destination in Izium, a picture that reminds us of the first images of this war. Russian forces have been trying to advance from Izumi to the south and Slavyansk for several days, but have not made much progress so far.

Russia may have increased the number of battalions in eastern Ukraine “from 30 to 40 in the last few days,” said Trace German, a professor of defense at King’s College London. According to him, aiming for one front “will make it easier for Putin to achieve what can be presented as a victory.”

The West suggests that Russia could double or even triple its forces in Donbas, meaning a significant shift in Moscow’s favor. Russia has already increased the intensity of pre-emptive operations and bombed the most direct supply lines of Ukrainian forces that remain in the area.

The governor of the region said that a Russian attack this weekend destroyed Dnipro airport, the most important city beyond the defensive lines. The reduction in Ukraine’s maneuverability was also the target of a brutal Russian missile attack on the Kramatorsk train station on Friday, which killed more than 50 people.

Great sacrifice for Moscow

The problem for Moscow is whether its already abusive forces will be able to accomplish the task. Western intelligence estimates released by the Associated Press on Monday show that 37 to 38 Russian battalions have become “non-combat effective” after being ousted from the suburbs of Kiev, Chernigov and Sumy. This leaves Moscow with an effective combat force of about 90 battalions. At full capacity each battalion should have about 800 soldiers.

Elsewhere in eastern Ukraine, Russian forces are approaching to protect control of Mariupol. This week they split the city in two, with a high cost to the attackers and a much higher cost to its residents, according to the Institute for War Studies.

“Tens of thousands of people have been killed,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a speech to the South Korean parliament on Monday. But the fierce battle for the port city once again showed Moscow that it could not continue to take the centers of the Ukrainian population without making great sacrifices for its own forces.

Tired of Russia

The problem of the current phase is serious for Ukraine, even if it no longer experiences an existential threat. Kiev has proven effective in using Western anti-tank weapons to counter Russian mechanized forces on the border, but Ukrainian forces are also experiencing wear and tear, and the Russians in the south and east of the country are pushing back little or not at all.

Ukraine’s first goal will be to try to slow down Russia’s advance in order to prevent its forces from besieging Donbass and instead throw Russia into a deadlock where both sides will become more and more tired after more than two. Fighting for months.

But the current situation will largely cut Ukraine off from the sea and Russia will have a land connection between Donetsk and Crimea. Ukraine may not have been as demilitarized as Putin demanded, but its economy has collapsed, with GDP shrinking by 45% this year, according to the World Bank.

Hoping to turn a stalemate into a victory, President Zelensky has repeatedly called on the West to hand over more and better weapons. What they have offered so far, at least publicly, is not enough to change the military balance. These materials include a dozen T-72 tanks from the Czech Republic, 10 Switchblade 600 drones from the United States and 120 armored vehicles from the United Kingdom.

Balancing game

For the West, on whose behalf Ukraine is effectively fighting the war, the question is whether to increase military supplies in the hope that Kiev will bring the conflict back to the ground and force Russian forces out of Kherson, close to the person. Expelling Russian invaders south of the Dnieper and other parts of the Donbass.

Members of the NATO Eastern Bloc refuse to supply Ukraine with Russian-designed fighter jets, indicating that the United States is concerned about provoking the unpredictable Kremlin, as well as over-balancing. It could be a turning point for Poland to deliver 100 Russian T-72 tanks from its arsenal to Kiev.

Maybe this is a game of hard-to-achieve balances. Do Ukraine’s Western allies want to launch a limited offensive against Putin that would prevent retaliation? Will we supply only the weapons that will be needed to return to the positions before the battle that started on February 24? If Ukraine had been in a stronger military position, Kiev could have recaptured the Donbass territories it had occupied since 2014, where Moscow’s defenses were likely to be tougher.

Translated by Francisco de Zarate