Extreme Consequences – Expert: How Winter Will Change War

The approaching winter in eastern Ukraine will have extreme consequences for people, equipment and the course of the conflict. We spoke to an expert in extreme weather warfare.

life in the field: The onset of winter, already a heavy burden for any regular army, becomes particularly difficult for newly drafted reservists in Russia. “They come to the front after a short training course from a civilian, sheltered environment. In addition to the enormous stress that a fight alone entails, there is also the risk of frostbite.” The expected temperatures of up to minus 15 degrees mainly cause damage to the nose, ears, fingers and toes. “Given the poor equipment situation of the reservists, it is now up to the families: aunts, uncles, cousins ​​now have to knit socks and gloves that are worn overlapping: one pair on the hands, for example, another on the body to dry.”

Weapon Effect: In the artillery-heavy war in Ukraine, the frozen ground becomes a deadly effect enhancer. “We have more ricochets in winter, for example hand grenades are more dangerous when the ground is frozen,” M explains. Movable rifle parts can freeze, with Russian Kalashnikov assault rifles in particular considered to be cold resistant. “It’s different with rifle optics, ie telescopic sights or night sights,” says M. “Once you exhale wrong, and the optics freeze.”

Vehicles and equipment: Liquids such as oil, petrol or water with antifreeze should not be a problem, as the temperatures in eastern Ukraine do not get low enough. This is what the batteries suffer for. “In general, the cold kills batteries, whether in cars, radios or night vision goggles.” The drones, which are widely used on both sides, also need batteries and their range will decrease. And they usually only fly in daylight, which is becoming increasingly rare. When rivers freeze over, new crossing opportunities open up.

civilian population: Thousands of windows have been smashed by the massive artillery shelling of the past seven months. And due to the lack of glass, the population covers them with plastic or wood. “It does stop the draft, but when an apartment really cools down, the concrete exudes a real icy cold,” says M. The result: the already strained power grid can collapse due to countless improvised heating devices. People would have to switch to wood and more house fires would follow.

“Winter is bad,” concludes M. concisely. “Probably both sides will slow down a bit. If not, whoever is more capable of night battles in the dark season wins. And has the better equipment against the cold.”