The impact risk of Asteroid 2024 JR4 is once predicted

He Asteroid 2024 JR4A rocky object of approximately 50 meters in diameterhas been identified by the POT As the highest impact risk with the earth ever registered in terms of probability. According to the latest evaluations, the possibility is that this heavenly body in 2032 in 2032 clashes to 3.1 %.

Astronomers have closely followed the asteroid process since the discovery at the end of 2024 and have adjusted the calculations based on new observations. Although the impact percentage in absolute terms remains low, it is considerably higher than that of other known asteroids.

For comparison, in 2004, the Asteroid Apofis was considered a serious threat because of its size, of approximately 370 meters, and an initial probability of impact that reached 2.7 % before it was completely thrown away after the subsequent analysis. In the case of 2024 JR4, although its size is lower, the chance of collision is the highest ever registered.

NASA and other space agencies, such as the European Space Agency (ESA), continue to control asteroid and refine their prediction models to determine whether future corrections in their process can reduce or increase the risk of impact. In the event that a considerable threat is maintained, detour missions can be evaluated if they have recently been tested with the Dart mission, which succeeded in changing the job of an asteroid in 2022.

If the impact occurs, the consequences would depend on the location and speed of the collision. An asteroid of 50 meters can cause considerable damage if it influences a populated area, similar to the Tunguska event in 1908, which wiped thousands of square kilometers forest in Siberia. However, if it fell in the ocean or in an uninhabited region, the effect would be lower.

The asteroid will be on the radar of terrestrial telescopes in 2028, when it is expected to obtain even more precise information about their job and reduce or confirm their impact risk. Among the observatories that follow, the institute of astrophysics of the Canary Islands, although it stops from April to be visible from the earth. At that time, the next task falls on space telescopes such as James Webb, which makes it possible to determine the exact diameter and composition.

It is expected that a new meeting will be held in May to evaluate the State of 2024 JR4. If the impact risk remains considerable at that time, additional measures can be discussed. However, experts remember that the chance of collision tends to decrease over time as the asteroid process is refined.