Experts see a “clear slowdown” in the third quarter and an uptick in the number of victims of open-ended contracts
The resilience that the labor market has surprisingly displayed in the first half of the year is faltering as the effects of the reform wear off. Now the war, the price crisis and the bottlenecks are also starting to impact on job creation, which could have peaked and is already losing momentum without reaching pre-pandemic levels in some of its indicators. This is according to the Quarterly Labor Market Observatory, published yesterday by the EY-Sagardoy Institute for Talent and Innovation, BBVA Research and Fedea.
“The data for the second quarter clearly shows a slowdown and the registration data for July, August and the first two weeks of September anticipate a certain stagnation in the number of contributors,” warned Rafael Domenech, responsible for the economic analysis of BBVA. Research.
Both the growth in the number of employed persons and the number of hours worked moderated between April and June. So, and despite the tie-up being the highest and more than 650,000 contributors gained compared to 2019, the data for July and August anticipates a stagnation in the number of contributors in the third quarter, in line with the slowdown in the economy that It has already been observed in recent months. This happens when hours worked, still conditioned by the impact of covid sick leave, full-time equivalent jobs and productivity have still not recovered to pre-health crisis levels.
Unemployment continues its downward trend and has been at its lowest point in 2008, but has failed to fall below 12%, characterized by the high long-term unemployment rate, which is close to 50%. Paradoxically, vacancy rates continue to rise and despite the fact that Spain – unlike the US and the eurozone – has not reached the highs of 2007, the report has seen it above the average of the last three decades. “This upward move tells us that it is becoming increasingly difficult to find a match for some workers and more difficulties for some companies in some industries to find workers to meet demand,” Domenech said.
Another shadow they’ve seen in recent months is holding back the impact the labor reform had on their pursuit of permanent contracts. In this sense, despite the fact that permanent employment is at an all-time high and staffing has fallen to a minimum, the weight of temporary contracts has risen again by about 10 points since the low in April. Likewise, June and especially August have seen a notable slowdown in ordinary open-ended contracts, translating into a slight lead of just 18,000 additional subscribers, an increase similar to 2019.
This brake is especially noticeable in the discontinuous fixed modality, with a much more limited impact since April; and even since June there have been negative variations in their affiliation. This mainly indicates that many of these contracts have been terminated or have entered a period of inactivity. Likewise, it is a reflection of the gradual increase in the number of layoffs among employees on permanent contracts. In particular, the number of casualties for permanent, discontinuous jobs has soared that it surpasses that of temporary jobs for the first time, and that of regular workers for indefinite periods has more than doubled compared to 2019.
The increase in the number of victims of permanent workers is due not only to the increase in temporary inactivity situations, but also to the marked increase in voluntary redundancies or redundancies and dismissals for failing probation. On the contrary, the layoff rate of temporary workers due to contract termination has not returned to its pre-pandemic high, and the overall layoff rate of these workers is already below that of those on non-permanent contracts.
Source: La Verdad
I’m Wayne Wickman, a professional journalist and author for Today Times Live. My specialty is covering global news and current events, offering readers a unique perspective on the world’s most pressing issues. I’m passionate about storytelling and helping people stay informed on the goings-on of our planet.
