Neither inflation nor interest rate hikes will slow the Spanish economy, according to forecasts sent by the government to the European Commission this Friday in its stability plan. The executive is confident that GDP will grow at 2.1% this year (after closing at 5.5% in the past), but will recover to 2.4% in 2024, above estimates from the rest of the economic organisms. The new macroeconomic framework foresees that domestic demand will be the main driver of growth this year, in particular private consumption, with an expected growth of 2.1%, supported mainly by employment developments. These are “cautious” forecasts, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said in a note to the media, following “strong economic growth” in recent years and continuing into the first quarter – when the economy grew by 0.5%, according to figures. has advanced the data put forward this Friday by the INE. However, the economic analysis organizations are not so optimistic in their forecasts. The Bank of Spain is closest to the government’s calculations, with a forecast of 2.3% for 2024, but the International Monetary Fund (IMF) does not exceed 1.5% and the OECD calculates 1.7% . Nevertheless, in the text sent to Brussels, the government acknowledges that this macroeconomic scenario is playing out in an international context characterized by rapid monetary policy tightening, periods of financial tension and geopolitical and energy uncertainty. An unemployment rate of 10% in three years The optimism of the Executive with the forecasts for the coming years also extends to the labor market. In the document sent to Brussels, Spain is confident that it will be able to restore the 10% unemployment rate within three years, in 2026. of the real estate bubble in 2008. This new labor calculation by Moncloa is explained by the incorporation of 1.1 million more working persons until 2026, with an average of about 400,000 more per year. Economy reminds the EU that this figure contributes to “the million jobs created after the pandemic” and that, according to the forecasts of the ministry led by Nadia Calviño, “will allow to reach record levels of employment” . And he insists that Spain will achieve this with an “increase in the active population and an improvement in the quality of employment”. News informed
Source: La Verdad
I’m Ben Stock, a journalist and author at Today Times Live. I specialize in economic news and have been working in the news industry for over five years. My experience spans from local journalism to international business reporting. In my career I’ve had the opportunity to interview some of the world’s leading economists and financial experts, giving me an insight into global trends that is unique among journalists.
