Threaten these scenarios – iran “ignites” and could double inflation

The increase caused by the war is currently around $ 15 per barrel (Brent variety). “The natural oil price is currently $ 65 and is now $ 12 to $ 15,” said Johannes Benigni, expert at JBC Vienna. But that can only be the start of a strong increase. There are various possible threatening scenarios, they all result in a price shock that would be different and would also encourage general inflation.

With 1.5 million barrels per day, Iran itself is an important oil producer. If Israel destroys facilities and Iran could no longer export oil, this would do the price. “But the crowd would not be absolutely decisive,” says Benigni. Nevertheless, the oil price can only go to $ 100.

However, there is another danger: if the regime loses its oil export and therefore loses an important source of income, it can be tempted to escalate. Then the damage in your own economy would be caused and Iran could go completely and block trade routes.

Iran bondmen in Yemen could “ignite”
Benigni can imagine that Tehran could initially indirectly hinder important trade routes with the help of the Huthi hunters in Yemen. The Bab Al-Mandab meter connects the Red Sea in the south with the Gulf of Aden. It would not be a direct attack by Iran, but Van Jemen, who recently announced his participation in the war. The quantities via this route should then be diverted.

The “Armageddon” would be the closure of Hormuz’s way, says Benigni. Almost 20 million barrels of oil go over the sea every day, an enormous amount. A failure would influence 20 percent of the worldwide capacities. Even 30 percent of the liquid guest transports run over it. The Iranian parliament spoke for a closure at the weekend. “Iran wants to win the first row for himself.

Insurance premiums for tankers doubled
The big question remains whether Iran is actually going that far, he would have the whole world and especially China against himself, even allies in the middle would be sensitive. In the case of an escalation, the expert expects an increase to $ 150, that would be at the level of time. Another cost factor is more expensive insurance companies due to the high uncertainty. “The premiums in the region have doubled in recent weeks,” says Benigni.

WIFO: Inflation can increase to five percent
Wifo economist Josef Baumgartner also considers a level of $ 150 in the case of a complete escalation as not unrealistic. In the case of an increase to $ 130, Baumgartner calculated that inflation could increase to five percent by the end of the year, almost doubling. The current increase at just under $ 80 would still be manageable and must be reflected in 0.1 to 0.2 percent more inflation. An increase of around $ 100 would heat inflation by 1 percent.

This is not only due to the oil price. This would undoubtedly reach fuel prices, which is already noticeable. However, transports from different goods would also become more expensive. Moreover, an increase in oil also influences the gas course, because many exporters also include the price per barrel of Brent oil in their price calculation. The markets are connected, some of which are also replaced by raw materials, the demand is related. The gas price has also risen since April and is already more than 42 euros per megawatt hour. The course grew up by more than 30 percent for a year.

With higher inflation rates, the wage rounds in the fall are probably stronger, which would stimulate inflation 2026. The central banks also pay attention to the developments tanks. A higher price increase this year will probably slow down the prospect of further interest rate letings.

Russia can fill its warmatics
Russia could be secret winners of the conflict. The country benefits from high energy prices and can fulfill its war treasures with income. The country has enough buyers for both oil and gas, a high price plays the Kremlin in the cards.