calcified voices


The polarization accentuates the rigidity of the electoral body. Today it seems so numb that it becomes difficult to transfer votes between the left and the right, which is still the majority in Murcian society and with no sign of a break in trend among the young people taking part in the polls. Mobilization will be key for both

Cemop’s latest polls again point in the same direction: as has been the case since 1995, the right will once again rule the region of Murcia after regional elections in May. It will happen, even in the unlikely event that the PSOE repeats itself as the most voted party four years later. Even in that case I wouldn’t be in the Assembly with Podemos. The PP is two seats away from an absolute majority, according to the projections of the Cemop barometer, which have become an almost perfect reflection of the Sigma Dos poll for the newspaper ‘El Mundo’ last January. The only difference is that Podemos now gets a third replacement. They also match the September survey data in the cities of Murcia and Cartagena, also collected by Sigma Dos, in this case in separate studies for LA VERDAD.

Still, with 30% of undecided voters, the possible distribution of seats should be analyzed with caution. Two months is an eternity in politics. There can always be a ‘black swan’ that makes for an unpredictable turn. Only votes in the polls count. That said, my impression is that barring major surprises, López Miras has almost everything in his favor to achieve a one-color minority government. Especially since the change of power today is much more complicated than it was four years ago due to growing polarization, especially since the failed vote of no confidence in 2021, which has accentuated the rigidity of the electoral body, calcified the vote and reduced the possibilities of transferring votes from the PP to the PSOE and vice versa.

The electorate of Murcia does not live in a bubble. It is exposed to a national political agenda of a very pronounced ideological nature. And certainly in this last legislature with an important role for Podemos, which with its ‘only yes is yes’ laws, abortion and the trans law mobilizes the most ideological voices, from which the purple party benefits more than the PSOE.

This polarization fixes voting based on party identity in a similar way in all areas, but in the Region it accentuates its suffocating effects because since 1995 society shows a conservative majority (about 60% of the population). There is no social equality between left and right. And it doesn’t seem that the new generations are changing this imbalance. Cemop provided vote transfer data, but no estimate of the number of votes by age. Yes, the Sigma Dos polls for LA VERDAD did just that and gave clues: in Murcia, 43.5% of the youngest people aged 18 to 29 thought López Miras would make a better president, compared to 14.9% who thought that by José Velez. Therefore, ideological changes are not appreciated by the youth of Murcia. On the contrary.

Instead of adapting to reality like other regional federations, the PSOE seems to be patiently waiting for Murcian society to change, not realizing that social transformations are as slow as plate tectonics (and don’t always move in the desired direction either) . That is why the socialists maintain a solid electoral base, but do not stop rising: it is difficult for them to grow on both the right and the left. Podemos sets Sánchez’s agenda in Madrid and here the combativeness and smoother language of candidate María Marín, who has no ties to certain issues, more effectively captures the attention of left-wing voters. Vélez continues with little public knowledge and a poor evaluation as a leader, which raises doubts about his profile as a candidate. His decisive character and undeniable work capacity play to his advantage, but he appears and disappears too often, focused more on the organic than in contact with the various groups of civil society. A good campaign and the appeal of the best mayors can make it restore what Podemos is scratching today. It’s more complicated to win by 11 points below the PP in vote estimation. Their only option is a massive mobilization of the left, a big rise of Vox to the detriment of the PP and the vast majority of that 30% indecisive.

Fernando López Miras faces the election when those who say they will vote for him don’t stay home and go to the polls. The polarization has strengthened the popular vote and has left coalition government management, in many cases flawed, in the background to Murcian voters, who usually neither reward nor punish management of public affairs. In addition, the adoption of the Tagus Plan, with the resulting transfer reduction, will give it an undeniable electoral gain, as it is rejected by 71.5% of voters. The story of water will again be electorally decisive, for while it can be brought down to the level of technical management and numbers, it has an atavistic and emotional component, the sources of which are easily malleable with the right discourse. And López Miras is three steps further in this. It’s also easy because there’s real damage economically that even the CHS itself recognizes in the Insurance Plan.

In principle, 21 seats would be enough to rule in a minority, although Vox will push to join the government and sell its support for the investiture dearly. López Miras will oppose a coalition government, given the experience of this legislature, which has also been rejected by a majority of citizens. Much of his campaign will revolve around the idea of ​​a solo government that will provide stability for four years. We’ll see if he can. It has the advantage that the regional elections are ahead of the general elections and that it will be difficult for Santiago Abascal to go to the polls now that the left can rule in the region. The possibility of an agreement to cede the mayoralty of Murcia to Luis Gestoso (Vox), in exchange for support for López Miras, does not seem realistic, especially with the mechanism of electing the first mayors, who favor denotes the list with the most votes if there is no agreement on the day of the formation of the consistory. The unknown is Vox, which is falling back in vote estimates, though showing solid support and growing by at least three delegates. Vox is relying entirely on Abascal’s appeal, as he has given up looking for a regional candidate with public projection and a certain intellectual stature. The campaign will be decisive for Vox, although it will have more to lose than to gain, the more the candidate’s seams show, the more people remember the infinity of internal problems they caused and the battalion of characters they sent to the brought to the front line.

As in the two previous autonomous regions, the PP is at stake for the absolute majority in Cartagena. He lost it because eight years ago he had Barreiro and four years ago because he didn’t take Garre. Cemop does not grant MC, José López’s formation, the 3% of the regional votes needed to participate in the Assembly, but it may surprise Cartagena and stop the PP’s aspirations at the regional level. Everything is open.

Source: La Verdad


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