The vote count for Sunday’s federal presidential election was in full swing on Monday afternoon. Results are already available in a number of polling districts and a general result is expected in the evening or on Tuesday. According to an updated forecast from ARGE Wahlen, the – originally assumed – lead of third-placed Dominik Wlazny over Tassilo Wallentin is melting. Alexander Van der Bellen already owns 56.71 percent.
On the evening of the election, 3,340,609 votes cast in the Hofburg elections had already been evaluated. The approximately 850,000 votes per post make up one fifth of the total. Whether the count will be completed on Monday was still open in the afternoon. For example, it was said from Tyrol on Sunday evening that the provisional final result, including voting cards, would be known by Tuesday 11 October at the latest.
Van der Bellen currently at 56.71 percent
After counting the (estimated total of 850,000) mail votes in 52 of the 116 districts, the ARGE Wahlen presented an updated extrapolation Monday afternoon. In it, the extrapolators used the postal votes counted so far to adjust their estimate for the outstanding postal votes – and thus also the global extrapolation.
While the ARGE Wahlen saw Van der Bellen, who had already been re-elected at the ballot box, at about 55.92 percent on Sunday evening, the president has risen again with the adjusted vote by mail and now stands at 56.71 percent. Second-placed FPÖ candidate Walter Rosenkranz should therefore land at 17.7 percent – instead of 17.62 percent in the latest extrapolation.
Race between Wlazny and Wallentin is getting closer
The race between Wlazny and Wallentin for third place is closer than originally predicted by ARGE. While the supercomputers on the night of the election still showed 8.83 percent for Wlazny and 8.08 percent for Wallentin, the beer party leader and the lawyer in the adjusted calculation came out at 8.33 and 8.02 percent respectively. . According to ARGE Wahlen, who ultimately stands for it cannot yet be definitively judged.
Like the ARGE Wahlen, the SORA institute also placed Wlazny (8.4 percent) in third place in its extrapolation. Wallentin is much closer to the beer party candidate in this calculation (unchanged since Sunday night) at 8.3 percent. Wallentin was in third place nationally (8.39 percent) of polling voters – and 5078 votes for Wlazny (8.23 percent). The extrapolators assume that Wlazny will benefit from the postal vote, but that Wallentin’s share of the vote will be slightly reduced.
Voter turnout will skyrocket
The adjustment of the ARGE elections also entails small shifts in the lower ranks. Ex-FPÖ/BZÖ politician Gerald Grosz is now shown with 5.54 percent (previously 5.82), MFG boss Michael Brunner with 2.09 (previously 2.13) and shoe manufacturer Heinrich Staudinger with 1.59 ( previously 1.6).
As in 2016, Van der Bellen will benefit greatly from voting by post. His share of the vote across Austria will increase, from 54.6 in the election to the aforementioned 56.71 (ARGE) and 56.2 (SORA). Turnout will take a big jump: Sunday’s meager 52.50 percent should rise to about 65 percent.
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