FPÖ in 1st place – forget Ibiza and Co.: Reasons for the blue high

Short-term memory and the red-hot long-term problem of migration help Herbert Kickl’s FPÖ to fly high, experts analyze. The Blues rank 1st in polls (such as OGM) (25%) – well ahead of the ÖVP (19) and just ahead of the SPÖ (24). Why is that?

The subject of “immigration” as an advantage
“The FPÖ has an advantage in the thematic competition. Everything that affects immigration benefits it,” says political professor Peter Filzmaier. For the first time since 2015, the FPÖ has its favorite subject back. At that time, Sebastian Kurz could occupy it for his turquoise. “That doesn’t work under Karl Nehammer. The FPÖ took it back. Where is the chancellor on this question?” asks Christoph Haselmayer (IFDD), who comes to the same conclusions as OGM in his polls.

SPÖ falls behind
“Ibiza and Co seem forgotten, ÖVP scandals dominate. In addition, there is a general voter migration between blue and black,” says Filzmaier. The SPÖ, which has been at 30% in recent months and well ahead, is stagnant at best. of the ÖVP crisis, but even if party leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner is unencumbered, the party still had business.”

There is also the wear and tear factor of time. “The SPÖ can only repeat itself every day with its demands for inflation and new elections.” The party cannot prevent escape and asylum from being central. Traditionally, there is no uniform line here.

“Already reconciled to inflation”
Haselmayer sees it that way too. To make matters worse: In the summer the topic was still in 8th place, now it is in 2nd place behind inflation (“people are more or less at peace with it”), fueled by riots like in Linz, tent debates, increasing asylum numbers , border security debates. This creates fear. “And plays into the hands of the FPÖ.”