Were pretty wrong – What pundits are saying about this election is “inexplicable”.

Carinthia is different. The sentence of the Green top candidate Olga Voglauer in a first round of analysis sums up a lot from election Sunday. The pollsters had neither the bitter losses of the SPÖ nor the strengthening of the ÖVP on their screens. Some even predicted lone fighter Gerhard Koefer (Team Carinthia) in third place ahead of the traditionally weak Carinthian Blacks. It turned out very differently.

But why? “People, of course, relied too much on the pre-surveys and the reporting,” says Carinthian political analyst Peter Plaikner. One of the pillars is Christoph Haselmayer of the Institute for Demoscopy and Data Analysis (IFDD).

“The SPÖ had a downward trend over the past week. The debate about party leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner certainly played a role in that.” Political adviser Thomas Hofer also sees it that way. “The debates about the party leadership certainly didn’t help. And after Carinthia they continue even more intensively.”

The reasons for the emergence of turquoise
The ÖVP’s gain, on the other hand, was “a surprise to all of us”, say the experts. How can the success of Karl Nehammer’s recently badly battered chancellor party be explained? “The ÖVP has played the game of the media and polls with the bad values. In addition, the Carinthian team, like the Fritz in Tirol list, was overhyped. In both cases, the forecasts could not be met,” says Plaikner.

His Carinthian colleague Haselmayer has several propositions for the success of the ÖVP: they underestimated the appeal of top candidate Gruber; he was also able to rally behind him all presumably inhomogeneous parts of the party; and the Klagenfurt airport issue is likely to have polarized people more than expected. Gruber took great pains to preserve it. “Apparently the airport is a status symbol for many Carinthians,” says Thomas Hofer, who, however, openly says about the ÖVP: “Sometimes the results can hardly be explained.”

Government parties now have a majority in the Bundesrat again
The Turquoise now have the majority in the Bundesrat with Green again. In addition, they could again be more offensive against the Greens, who failed in Carinthia. After all, all predictions for the FPÖ were correct: a slight increase from a high level. The Blues, led by Herbert Kickl from Carinthia, had cause for joy. Although a better result prevented Gerhard Köfer. He fishes in several ponds. Especially in blue.