Progressive government or electoral replay, the only two options after the PP’s unsatisfactory victory

The general election of 23J They have closed the door to a right-wing government and envision only two viable scenarios: the re-election of a progressive government or a repeat of the elections.

Yes, Pedro Sánchez did it again and the blue wave predicted by the PP did not reach the coast. Alberto Núñez Feijóo aimed for a comfortable and strong majority and, although he has significantly improved the 89 seats he inherited from Pablo Casado, he has certainly remained far from the 150 that the ‘people’ gave until this Sunday. Eating Ciudadanos and taking the vote from Vox, which loses 19 deputies, has not served to force itself clearly and get closer to Moncloa, while the PSOE holds on and even grows after another Sánchez pirouette, bringing the election forward by surprise.

Of course, the current president will have to perform an “even tougher” order to reissue the coalition government: lure JxCat, the party of Carles Puigdemont, to the inauguration block with at least one abstention. The first statements from the Catalan independence party suggest that it will not be an easy task: “We will not make Sánchez president for nothing.”

And without Junts, what? The political arithmetic that the polls have drawn would then point to a blockade scenario leading to a repeat of the election.

The legal terms begin to run on August 17 with the Constitution of the new Congress. From there, the inaugural debate could be held at the end of August or, much more feasible, the first week of September. If that inauguration failed, there would be a two-month window for possible retries. This means that if the blockade is maintained in early October, as happened with the failed inaugurations of Pedro Sánchez in March 2016 and July 2019, and if no viable alternative is reached in the following two months, the Cortes must be dissolved again in November and elections must be held after 47 days, i.e. at Christmas.