Silván & Miracle has analyzed the microdata from the new wave of the EITB Focus survey. According to the report, participation in the next elections would increase, although a significant part of the electorate has not yet engaged with the electoral process.
EITB Focus estimates a higher turnout in the coming elections and estimates it at 64%. It is worth noting that abstention in the 2020 elections, held in the middle of the pandemic and in the summer, was 40%, a historic figure.
The transfer of votes between parties is mainly in favor of EH Bildu, who would receive 6% of the PNV voters. The Yeltzales do not receive voters from any party, although 7% of those who did not vote four years ago will now vote for the party.
The so-called double vote, a vote in which parties change depending on the election date, will be a key issue in the next Basque regional elections. Compared to the general elections last July, 19% of people who voted for the PSE-EE on this occasion would choose the PNV. 16.4% would vote for EH Bildu.
Faithful voice
EH Bildu remains the formation with the most loyal voters (86%), growing three points compared to the general election data.
The PNV, in turn, loses four points compared to the general elections and has a loyalty of 63%. As a result of the double vote, the PSE-EE drops 13 points and remains 54% loyal, while Elkarrekin Podemos loses 20 points (24% loyalty).
Undecided
According to Silván & Miracle’s analysis, the data on people who are unsure about the election call shows that “an important part of the electorate has not yet been connected to the electoral process.” “Taking into account the low awareness rates of the candidates and the fact that no elections have been called yet, it makes sense,” they add.
Elkarrekin Podemos and PSE-EE are the ones with the highest percentage of undecided voters: 24% of those who voted for Elkarrekin Podemos in 2020 and 19% of those who voted for the Basque Socialists four years ago now say they are undecided.
And 21% of voters say they are undecided, and of all of them, 86% are not even wavering between any party because “they are disconnected” from the electoral climate. Of those who do hesitate between parties, 36% do so between PNV and EH Bildu, and 17% between PNV and PSE-EE.
Knowledge of leaders
Finally, the EITB Focus also reflects that the knowledge level of leaders remains low, so that when deciding the vote, party acronyms will outweigh the candidates’ rating.
Imanol Pradales (PNV) and Pello Otxandiano (EH Bildu) are the best known, with 53% and 50% “very low” data respectively, according to Silván & Miracle.
Data sheet
1,800 people living in the BAC were interviewed to prepare the EITB Focus survey (600 in each historical area).
The fieldwork was conducted from January 24 to 29 through telephone interviews.
For more detailed information or other statistical aspects, see the full PDF of the study.
Source: EITB
I am Ida Scott, a journalist and content author with a passion for uncovering the truth. I have been writing professionally for Today Times Live since 2020 and specialize in political news. My career began when I was just 17; I had already developed a knack for research and an eye for detail which made me stand out from my peers.
