Politically unofficial – Trust Studi: Georg Willi and his disciples

Another seven weeks and then there will be elections in Innsbruck (April 14). There are 40 municipal councilors and there are separate elections for the mayoral post, which is determined directly. Seven weeks in which a lot can happen. The current situation is interesting. Incumbent mayor Georg Willi is considered the favorite to become head of the capital again.

But not because he has shone with many ideas and actions in recent years, but because some of his opponents are “tearing each other apart” internally.

The major bourgeois parties are the biggest challengers
On paper, his biggest challengers are the so-called major bourgeois parties. After almost three decades (!) of disagreement, the For Innsbruck group with Christine Oppitz-Plörer (founded in 1994 by Herwig van Staa as a splinter of the then Innsbruck ÖVP with mayor Romuald Niescher at the helm) and the ÖVP joined forces – they now call themselves “New Innsbruck”. The top candidate is Florian Tursky, currently secretary of state in the federal government and responsible for digitalization. The clear goal: take back the mayor’s seat.

Anzengruber also wants to be at the top
As far as the paper form goes, it’s actually a start, provided you don’t shoot yourself in the foot. But that is exactly what happened when they failed to pacify one of their own ranks. Namely Johannes Anzengruber. He used to be a popular innkeeper on an alpine meadow in Innsbruck, but he entered politics. And he is attracted even further, he also wants to be at the top. He also wants to become mayor. After all talks with Anzengruber failed, he left the ÖVP and now wants to climb to the top alone. He founded his own group called “Yes – now Innsbruck.”

Tursky “too stiff”?
Since then, Anzengruber has been accelerating, if not full throttle. He approaches people, as a former innkeeper it comes easy to him. Unlike Tursky, they say. You hear more and more often – also from those around him – that he seems ‘too stiff’ and is therefore not well received by voters. The current dual political role as secretary of state and top candidate for the mayoral elections is also not exactly an advantage. However, the sparrows are already whistling from the rooftops that Tursky will retire as State Secretary in the foreseeable future to devote himself entirely to Innsbruck.

Lassenberger has the best chance of a second election
The best chance of competing against Willi for mayor in the second round is currently given to FPÖ leadership candidate Markus Lassenberger – precisely because of the disagreements between the Tursky and Anzengruber camps. The Freedom Party has barely made an appearance so far. “This is the best he can do. Just don’t make a mistake,” his party even says. The FPÖ will, partly thanks to the national trend, make further gains in Innsbruck and possibly become number one. But it is very likely that there will never be a blue mayor in Innsbruck. The reason: in a second election, Lassenberger would not even get the support of the other defeated citizen parties or center parties, let alone those to the left of the center, which are definitely closer to Willi.

Hope for student votes
There are still seven weeks until the municipal elections, in which almost 105,000 people were eligible to vote in 2018. Interestingly enough, this is 18,000 more than at the state elections in Innsbruck. How does it work? The answer is simple: these are the students who registered for these elections and who – it can be speculated – predominantly vote for Green and therefore for Georg Willi. According to insiders, Willi can expect approximately 15,000 student votes in a second election. This is all the more important, especially since Willi only received 23,791 votes to win the mayoral seat in the second election of 2018. Challenger Christine Oppitz-Plörer received 21,171 votes. So 2620 Kreuzerl chose Willi.

Georg wants against anyone
And anyone who is a little mathematically literate and interested will realize that both numbers together do not even account for half of all possible votes (104,245). In other words: more than 56% of eligible voters were not at all interested in the duel for the mayor of the capital. So much for the understanding of democracy by many people in Innsbruck. At that time, Willi was elevated to the throne by less than a quarter of Innsbruck’s voters. Mainly thanks to his student supporters, on whom he can rely.

The same could happen again on April 28, when the second vote says: “Georg Willi against anyone!”