The FPÖ under Herbert Kickl leads in all surveys – with 30 or more percent. But there are doubts about the figures.
The FPÖ storms almost unstoppably towards Ballhausplatz. In all surveys, Herbert Kickl’s party comes first. Snapshots, that’s the standard phrase used by the competition. The phrase quickly fades as moments turn into months. Some pollsters see the FPÖ at between 30 and 32 percent. ÖVP and SPÖ lagged behind with 21-23 percent.
Haselmayer: “These are incorrect projections”
But are these calculations actually correct? Christoph Haselmayer, head of the Institute for Demoscopy and Data Analysis (IFDD), is skeptical. He also has the FPÖ in the lead, but “30 percent or more is not enough. These are incorrect forecasts.”
How does the pollster come up with this? Haselmayer conducted surveys for National Council elections in major cities. Conclusion: “The FPÖ is almost always below 20 percent. That means the Blues have a problem in the metro area. You would have to achieve at least 40 percent or more in rural areas to reach 30 plus nationally. That is not realistic.”
Haselmayer therefore has the FPÖ stable at around 27 percent. In the countryside, where the FPÖ scores strongly, there are also farmers. “And 75 percent of them vote for the ÖVP.”
Salzburg and Innsbruck do not provide any conclusions for the federal elections
The pollster also emphasizes that you should not draw any conclusions for national elections from the elections in Salzburg and Innsbruck. They were regional elections. Another reason why “blue trees don’t grow into the sky” is, so to speak, of a mass psychological nature.
FPÖ positions move to the center
According to political advisor Thomas Hofer, the FPÖ was previously “undervalued”. This means that people did not dare to speak out for the Blues in surveys. That’s why they had a higher percentage than expected in the elections. Nowadays it’s different. “There has been a turn towards overvaluation.”
Positions from the right are increasingly shifting towards the “center”; its social appeal drives people to openly express their support for the FPÖ. “Especially with online surveys.” But then people might not vote. That’s why Hofer, like Haselmayer, doesn’t see the Blues at 30 percent, but at the end of 20 percent.
Source: Krone
I am Ida Scott, a journalist and content author with a passion for uncovering the truth. I have been writing professionally for Today Times Live since 2020 and specialize in political news. My career began when I was just 17; I had already developed a knack for research and an eye for detail which made me stand out from my peers.
