War Threat – Middle East: The Calm Before the New Firestorm

It still seems like the proverbial calm before the storm. Negotiations on a ceasefire in the Gaza war and the release of Jewish hostages held by the Islamist terrorist organization Hamas continued on Friday in Doha, the capital of Qatar. Hopes for a breakthrough are slim.

However, both the Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah and Iran have announced that they will not carry out any retaliatory strikes against Israel as long as negotiations continue.

Following the attacks Israel allegedly carried out on Hamas leader Ismael Hanyeh in the Iranian capital Tehran and the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander in the middle of the Lebanese capital Beirut, both Tehran and Hezbollah announced retaliatory strikes.

This would lead to a conflagration in the Middle East. But how would Iran’s neighbors and Israel react to a war?

Saudi Arabia is one of Iran’s biggest rivals in the region, but has only recently resumed diplomatic relations with Tehran and is also moving closer to Israel. “Saudi Arabia has declared its armed neutrality as a precaution in the event of a regional war,” said renowned Middle East expert Reinhard Schulze of the University of Bern in an interview with “Krone”.

Middle East battlefield in a proxy war?
Since Egypt, Jordan, the Emirates, South Yemen and Bahrain are Saudi Arabia’s closest allies, they will probably follow this neutrality. In any case, it is questionable whether this can be adhered to. As long as this neutrality exists, Schulze thinks that it will be very difficult for Iran to operate militarily, because only the airspace above southern Iraq, Syria and Lebanon would be open.

However, this could change quickly, as a US intervention would come via the ten US bases – eight of which are in the Gulf – and eleven other military posts – five of which are in Iraq, Syria and Jordan and two in Saudi Arabia. In theory, Saudi Arabia would then also have to take action against US aircraft if they were to operate in their airspace.

“Finally, it is important to note that there are discussions going on right now about a close partnership between Russia and Iran,” Schulze said. “If the US intervenes in Iran, it could potentially lead to a conflict with Russia.” And no one in the region wants to be the battlefield for a proxy war.