Sociometer results on voting intention for the 2023 regional and municipal elections

Euskaraz irakurri: EAJk irabaziko luke hiru aldundietan eta EAEko hiru hiriburuetan, Soziometroaren arabera

The Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) would prevail in provincial and municipal elections (in the three capitals) if elections were held today, according to the sociometer of the Sociological Prospecting Office of the Basque Government.

The voting intention survey, conducted by a telephone survey from 6 to 10 Juneprovides data similar to EITB Focus last May, revealing that the abstinence would go up significant, in many cases up to six points, and would be round 40%

Concerning the official elections, 3,333 people living in the BAC (800 in Álava, 1,449 in Bizkaia and 1,084 in Gipuzkoa) were asked. In Alava, the jeltzales would confirm their 2019 win, with an estimated vote of 31.6%. EH Bildu would be the second force, with 23.3% of the vote. The survey gives 17% of its support to the PSE-EE. Populares (14%) and Elkarrekin Podemos (6.8%) would fall in percentage of the estimated votes. Vox, although it would increase in support (3.4%), would not have representation in Alava’s General Assemblies. These results, with minor nuances (half a point difference in the results of Jeltzales, Socialists and Vox), are in line with those indicated by the EITB Focus survey. The poll predicts abstinence from the 41.5%one of the highest expected by the study, over six points from that in 2019 (35.8%).

In Biscay, the PNV would rise slightly, with 44.6% of the estimated votes. At some distance, and with 22.2% of the vote, EH Bildu would repeat the second position, seven points ahead of the PSE-EE (14.7%). Elkarrekin Podemos managed to maintain fourth place, albeit with a loss of support (7.8%), closely followed by “popular” (7.3%). EITB Focus took a similar picture, although it gave more than one point in estimated votes to the PNV (45.7), and less support to the PP. The abstinence is said to be more than 40% (40.5), compared to 34.2% in 2019.

Like EITB Focus, the Sociometro foresees a battle between the PNV and EH Bildu Gipuzkoa, for whom the survey would predict 36.4% and 33.5% respectively. PSE-EE would lose support and fall to 15.9% of the vote, as would Elkarrekin Podemos (7%). PP is said to be able to maintain its share of 2019 (4.7%). According to the Sociological Survey Office, 4 in 10 citizens would stay at home.

In terms of the results of the municipal elections in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Bilbao and San Sebastián (with a survey of 1,444 people), this survey is hardly far from the data offered by the voting intent survey of the EITB Media group, with alone except the Biscayan capital, in which, according to Sociometro, the PNV would not get an absolute majority

Otherwise, the estimated results are practically the same. In Vitoria-Gasteiz, PNV and EH Bildu would have the number of councilors right (7) and with a difference of two points in the percentage of votes (24.3% against 22%). It would follow them in PSE-EE, with six representatives (20.4%), and the PP with five (18%). Elkarrekin Podemos would decrease in number of councilors (2) and support percentage (4.6). The survey foresees an increase for Vox (4.6%), although it would not achieve representation. The abstention would again be around 40%, although the data does not differ much from the results of 2019 (36.75%).

As we said, the Sociometer predicts a victory for the jeltzales in Bilbao, although not by an absolute majority (44.7%), which would make it 14 councillors, as is now the case. EH Bildu and PSE-EE would keep the number of councilors the same (5) and both would exceed 15% (15.9 and 15.4% respectively). EITB Focus, on the other hand, did foresee a single mayor advantage on the part of the socialists, although both would tie in percentage of the vote. There would also be changes in the support of Elkarrekin Podemos (8.8%) and PP (9.0%), to whom the Sociometer assigns 2 (one less than in 2019) and 3 representatives respectively. EITB Focus foresaw just the opposite: the purple coalition managed to keep its three councilors, while the “popular” one lost theirs. The abstention would be 41.5%.

Finally, the estimate of the councilors and the percentage of votes in favour Saint Sebastian would hold no surprises regarding the EITB Focus. The PNV would win the election again, with 37.1% of the vote and 11 councillors. EH Bildu would again be the second force, with another mayor (7) and 22.7% of the vote (EITB Focus gave it 24.7). The Socialists would remain (17.2 and 5 representatives), while Elkarrekin Podemos and PP would receive the same number of councilors (2) and respectively 7.9 and 9.2% of the estimated support. The abstention in this case would be 41%, six points less than in 2019.