Few votes count: these seven swing states will decide the US elections

50 states make up the United States of America. The election will be decided in only seven of them. These are the so-called swing states, the states with changing majorities. 43 states are therefore uninteresting for the elections, because one of the two parties is permanently anchored there.

This is especially true in the Republican cowboy states in the Midwest, which are, however, favored by electoral law due to the number of voters.

The race is tight, the time is short. For Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, every minute counts in the election campaign. Until the vote on November 5, the Democrat and Republican will mainly travel to where the elections will ultimately be decided: to the swing states.

The reason for this is the electoral system. Strictly speaking, 51 presidential elections will take place (states plus the capital Washington). Who becomes president is not determined by the total number of votes cast nationally, but by 538 delegates from the states.

The so-called electoral college is formed proportionally to the size of the population – there are also two deputies each, analogous to the senatorial seats in the individual states. In all but two states, if a candidate is in the lead, he or she gets all the voters in that state, regardless of the exact number of votes.

Experts expect a close decision in the seven key states. Below is an overview of which topics are particularly important in these regions:

Many American analyzes consider Pennsylvania perhaps the top state of choice. The large number of voters makes a final victory for both candidates much more difficult without this state. Major issues in the state, which is characterized by a strong middle class, are the high cost of living and the controversial natural gas extraction through fracking. The polls show no favorites here. The state is being labeled as a so-called ‘toss-up’.

After six victories for the Republicans, Joe Biden managed to win the southern state of Georgia for the Democrats in 2020. The share of the black vote was particularly important to this success; they make up about a third of all voters. However, in the spring, surveys showed that Biden was losing ground, especially among younger black people.

Harris has only partially made up for the deficit. In Georgia there is also the risk of another long battle over the counting of votes. Recently, the staunch Conservative Election Oversight Authority decided that all votes must be counted by hand. This means arguments can last for days and weeks.

North Carolina is actually conservative: with the exception of Barack Obama in 2008, the state has always voted for the Republican presidential candidate. But with many newcomers and a large proportion of black people, Harris hopes for a surprise.

Another election decision on November 5 could also ensure this: North Carolina will also appoint a new governor. With Mark Robinson, the Republicans have nominated an extreme candidate who denies the Holocaust, wants to introduce a ban on abortion and makes headlines with scandals.

Michigan’s Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, is very popular; she secured her re-election two years ago with a lead of almost ten percentage points. The result will certainly not be so clear in November: in 2016, Donald Trump was only 11,000 votes ahead; in 2020, the state went to Biden by about two percentage points.

It is unclear whether this success can be repeated for the Democrats, as the industrialized country is home to many Arab Americans who are critical of Biden’s support for Israel. This group of voters secured victory for the Democrats four years ago.

Arizona, on the southern border east of California, plays a key role in both the presidency and the majority in the Senate. Progressive Democrat Ruben Gallego is currently losing to Trump’s girlfriend Kari Lake in the Senate elections in Arizona.

A referendum on abortion rights there could also motivate additional Democratic voters. At the federal level, however, the story is different: Harris’ strategists are concerned about the polls among young people. Support for the Democrats is crumbling here. Overall, Trump has a slight advantage.

Wisconsin is particularly competitive: Trump beat Hillary Clinton there in 2016, and Biden was ahead of Trump in 2020. Both times the difference was only about 20,000 and three million votes cast. Current opinion polls show that the race is likely to be extremely close again.

Nevada sends only a few voters to Washington, but they too could be decisive. Economic issues are especially important in the Silver and Desert Southwest state: recovery from the coronavirus pandemic has been slow and unemployment is among the highest in the US. About three-quarters of Nevadans live in or around the gambling metropolis of Las Vegas. Since 1976, both Republicans and Democrats have each won the state six times.