100 days Trump – Chaos rates such as weird love greetings from Washington

Observer leaves Trump’s customs policy, often known as “irregular”. The love for rates at Trump is nothing new. Long before the former real estate magnate was chosen by the American president, he told the rates for low American goods for Chinese goods. As American president, he is now on the levers of power; He is convinced that the US would be treated unfairly in world trade. The trade shortages for goods- especially with China (commercial surplus 2024: 295.5 billion US dollars) and the European Union (198.2 billion euros)- are a thorn in the side of Trump.

The Customs Club
The increase in American rates that are announced several times in the election campaign will become reality immediately after re -providing the White House. Customs on goods from China, Mexico and Canada, for example, increased significantly in March. Trump justifies his approach to drug policy. All three countries would not have done enough to conquer the inflow of fatal fentanyl -opioid and his predecessor chemicals in the United States. Later he partially takes the rates back. He also imposes punishment on all aluminum and steel imports and launched rates of 25 percent on imported cars and car parts.

On April 2, the customs club for “the whole world” or if Trump presents the “The Day of Liberation”: the American president presents a board with country and customs rates. The EU is set with surcharges of 20 percent, India with 26 percent, South Korea with 25 percent and Japan by 24 percent. States such as Russia and Wit -Russia are excluded. A few days later, Trump shifts the introduction of the SO -born mutual rates to 90 days for all listed countries and determines customs at 10 percent – apart from the 25 percent on steel, aluminum and cars – with one exception: China.

According to the original list, China even needs 34 percent. The trade conflict escalates. Beijing adds, Washington adds. Finally, the input load on both sides is beyond 100 percent. According to information from the White House, China even threatens 245 percent. Shortly thereafter, Beijing explains not to respond to a “number game with rates” and warned other countries at the expense of “China for trade agreements. Trump now hits reconciling tones opposite Beijing.

Base
Trump relies on a law from 1977, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). This gives him awarding forces for fighting a crisis. As part of this law, Trump proclaimed the national emergency situation, because the American deficit is “big and persistent” in international goods trade. It rose to 1.2 BIO in 2024. Dollars (1.11 Bio. Euro). Industrial production must be reduced to the US and new jobs, argues the Republican.

But actually the economy abroad is quite healthy. In 2024, the US economy has grown by 2.8 percent. “The United States had higher growth than Europe last year,” says foreign trading economist and professor Harald Oberhofer of WU University in conversation with the APA. The unemployment rate (about four percent) and inflation (under three percent) are also moderate. According to experts, the economic environment is ideal for employees, entrepreneurs and investors.

The uncertainty
Nevertheless, Trump is almost obsessed with trade shortages and the idea of ​​reducing industrial production to the rust belt of the United States. The “Rest” includes American countries with cities such as Detroit or Cleveland in the northeast and the middle west of the country, which were previously mainly formed by steel, coal and automobile production. With globalization, however, industrial production mainly emigrated to China – just like the jobs. Trump’s promise was well received in the election campaign in this region and was rewarded accordingly with votes.

The only problem is: “Investments will not be beaten from one day to the next,” explains Oberhofer. Trump can only achieve this through “protectionist measures” and that can only work if “you do this permanently, ie even outside your period,” adds the Wifo economist. “His irregular politics is more of much uncertainty, the economic uncertainty in the US has never been as high as today, also based on an index, because the COVID Pandemie is relatively insignificant.” And: “Uncertainty is never good for investments,” emphasizes Oberhofer.

Fireworks
Oberhofer talks about “Fireworks in announcements and return” in the first 100 days of Trump’s second term. “In general, it is three months of uncertainty and essentially a trade policy conflict that Donald Trump started with the rest of the world.” The American president has given the “regular world trade system a difficult blow, it is a policy in which he makes strength and size to his advantage and does not want to comply with the international rules of the game,” says the economist. Oberhofer points out that other economies could regard this as a model.

The Trump administration also makes it easy. When calculating the mutual rates, Washington only took into account the “relative trade shortage in terms of the import of a trading partner,” explains Oberhofer. Research knew that this is only due to 13 percent of the actual trade barriers. Moreover, the entire calculation of the Service Version was not included. The trade deficit for goods with the EU is negative, but it looks different with services. Here the EU is mainly dependent on American technology companies, so that the EU trading deficiency was around 109 billion euros compared to that of the United States in 2023.

The negotiations
Unlike China, the rest of the world focuses on patience. The EU committee, which negotiates on behalf of its Member States, is moving its announced answer to the American rates about steel and aluminum. There are discussions with representatives from the US government. Trump is convinced that “100 percent” can be found in the customs flict with the EU. Oberhofer is not certain, at least with regard to the time horizon: “This is a relatively large administrative task for the United States to negotiate with all trading partners in the world, it should not be underestimated whether you can make an agreement in 90 days.”

However, it is clear that, according to Oberhofer, the US is currently “on capacity based on a regular -based trading system”. However, the EU still feels dedicated to adhere to the rules, otherwise it would support Trump’s politics – “,” completely ignoring and destroying the rules, “says the economist. This could not be the goal of the EU in the long term, especially for economies interested in good relationships with the world.

The consequences
In any case, one thing is certain: Trump’s customs policy will lead to bitter consequences for the world economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects worldwide growth. The world economy should grow considerably slower by 2.8 percent than predicted in January (minus 0.5 percentage points). The economic growth in the euro area must only be 0.8 percent. The Austrian prediction for this year is even 0.3 percent of an economic decrease.

The trade war between China and the US can also leave deep traces in Europe. The high rates must almost bring trade between the two large powers to certain goods. The result: China floods the EU market with its products. “This is something that we know from research that this actually happens, that there are transactions on the market,” explains De Oberhofer. “It is a conflict that Donald Trump plays with the whole world.”