Secret service alerted – Fear of attacks: India blocks airspace

The Indian government said on Wednesday that they respond to Pakistan’s ban. The measure will now apply until 23 May. Earlier, the government in Islamabad had accused the archenemy of planning a military attack in the next 24 to 36 hours.

The Pakistani minister of information Attaullah Tarar referred to “credible information information” about the Short Message Service X. There was no explanation from India to late in the evening. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had previously given his army “operational freedom” in the controversial Kaschmir region.

The last dispute between the two atomic registered regional powers was caused by an attack on 22 April in the Indian part of Kashmir. 26 tourists were killed. According to Indian information, two of the three attackers were Pakistani citizens. It was “terrorists” who wanted to manage a violent rebellion in Kashmir. Pakistan denied every involvement and asked for an independent investigation.

The region in North Himalaya has been shared since the independence of India and Pakistan in 1947. Both countries claim Kashmere for themselves and have already waged two wars around the area. Since the attack, soldiers of both parties have been to the border area. The tension between the two nuclear forces is dangerously high. Pakistan threatens to respond to any aggression of India.

Rubio called top representatives of the conflict parties
The escalating situation has also called on the plan. Foreign Minister Marco Rubio was, according to his ministry on the phone with the Indian Chief Diplomat Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. He then said that he encouraged India to reduce tensions with Pakistan and to preserve peace and safety in the region. In a conversation with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, he called on the country’s authorities to participate in the investigation of the attack on Indian tourists and to restore direct contact with the government in New Delhi.

Press Premier Modi
“Many Indians demand retribution against Pakistan,” says Praveen Donthi of the Denkfabrik International Crisis Group (ICG). Moreover, the government is criticized not to protect the civilian population. “The Indians immediately started an escalation to Pakistan,” notes Mélissa Levaillant from Thinktank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). “But what exactly do they want? This is not entirely clear, especially because the Pakistani support for terrorist groups has fallen sharply.”

Precedent case of 2019
The current situation is reminiscent of 2019 when 40 Indian paramilitaries were killed in Pulwama in the Indian part of Kashmir in an attack. Jaish-e-Mohammed (Jem), a Pakistani Islamic group, which is said to have connections with Pakistani foreign intelligence service. India then flew air strikes against the neighboring country for the first time since the 1971 war. Pakistan shot an Indian plane and conquered a pilot.

Doubts of the US as an intermediary
“At that time, the situation eventually became harmless thanks to Washington’s diplomatic pressure,” says analyst Donthi. The question is whether the US government would still work in this way today. “The United States has plenty to do with Ukraine, Gaza and the nuclear deal with Iran that Beijing can offer a chance to attack,” Vrees Colin Clarke from the Soufan Center, a think tank in New York. “But given the close relationships of China with Pakistan, it is not very likely that India sees China as an objective intermediary.”

With the government of US President Donald Trump: “There is a risk that the United States will be less dedicated,” says Levaillant. “Your relationship with Pakistan has deteriorated and Islamabad is no longer a strategic asset in dealing with the Taliban in Afghanistan.”

Development of the conflict completely open
According to the experts, it is how the conflict will develop is fully open. “It is unclear whether India will act militarily against his neighbor,” says Donthi. It is still stopping -the Fires still stops on the definition line, which separates both countries. “But Neu-Delhi could decide to attack, especially if it feels encouraged by global support after the attack.”

Levaillant it “probably considers that both armies will pull troops together. But we are still at the start of the crisis and there are still many strangers”. An uncertainty that is not exactly calming: “Sometimes, especially between long -term opponents, the slowness gets the upper hand (…) and makes the situation much more dangerous,” Clarke warns. Especially since both countries have atomic bombs. Their dedication has actually been taboo since 1945, but Russian President Vladimir Putin has been threatened by Ukraine again and again since 2022.

“There is an unrestrained global context that shows that the red lines actually shift when it comes to nuclear weapons,” says Levaillant. In the specific case, “escalation management is risky because the Pakistani nuclearoctrin is very unclear”. However, the Indians could try “to test this doctrine and prove that they can acquire a piece of territory without the Pakistaners back”.