American attack on Iran – an unprecedented event with unforeseen consequences

“We will only know if he was successful when we survive for the next three to five years without the Iranian regime getting nuclear weapons,” explains the former CIA analyst Kenneth Pollack, which works today at Middle East Institute. With the attack, Trump certainly gave the lead in Tehran “Quarrel” to strive for the atomic bomb.

Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft has become even clearer: Trump has “made it more likely that Iran will be a nuclear armor in the next five to ten years,” says the explained opponent of military actions. “We should not confuse tactical success with strategic success.” The expert also refers to an example of history: “The war in Iraq was also successful in the first few weeks, but the statement by President Bush ‘mission’ was not fulfilled.”

Most difficult moment since the basis of the Islamic Republic
The American attack on Iran was carried out at a time when the state was led by clergymen at one of its weakest moments since the fall of pro-Western Shah by the Islamic Revolution in 1979: Since the attack of Hamas supported by Tetherh on October 7, 2023, Israel has not only closed the Islamist Palestinian organization in the Gaza Strip.

And the most important claimed of the Mullahs among the Arab states, the old ruler Bashar al-Assad of Syria, was overthrown in December. For a long time he played a strategic role for the “Axis of Resistance”, which Iran and the US mentioned against Israel and the US, who also belong to Hamas and Hisbollah. This is currently considerably weakened.

Trump play, determined Netanyahu for time
Trump’s attack was almost exactly a decade after the then American President Barack Obama had signed the nuclear deal with Tehran. As a result, in contrast to the lifting of sanctions, Iran drove its atomic activities considerably – until Trump left the agreement in 2018 in 2018. The Republican, who likes to call himself a peace, said a month ago when he visited Arab golf monarchies, he hoped for a new agreement with Iran.

And Trump also explained that he wanted to prevent a new “endless war”. He spoke from the heart of the influential group of isolationists in his Maga movement (make America big again, makes America big again). The United States wants to keep it largely out of conflicts and fear a debacle such as after the American invasion in Iraq.

In the sense of this course, the US government prepared new discussions with Tehran when Iran attacked Iran a week ago, June 13. This led to an abrupt change by the American president of criticism that Trump had driven into the attack decision of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu celebrated the “brave” American attack, which “would change the course of history”.

Eye of developments in Iran
What effects the attack will have on both Iran and Worldwide is still fully open. The spiritual leadership in Iran, which was recently under pressure from a large protest movement, could be theoretically strengthened by the conflict or their decrease in power is accelerated, says Karim Sadjadpour of the Institut Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Nobody could predict this.

“The American bombing of Iranian nuclear systems is an unprecedented event that can prove to be transforming for Iran, the Middle East, the American foreign policy, the spread of nuclear weapons and possibly even world order,” says Sadjadpour. “The effects will have been noticeable for decades.”