A Supercomputer predicts the champions of the major European leagues: there are surprises

The Supercomputer data web FiveThirtyEight predicts every week the championship chances for each team in the major leagues and European tournaments, from LaLiga Santander until Champions League passing through Premier, Bundesliga, Ligue 1 or Europa League, among others.

Through a series of variables obtained using data from multiple providers, such as Opta or Transfermarkt, they obtain ratings for each team that allow them to make a first prediction of the results in each match for each competition. Based on this system, it runs 20,000 simulations for each league, following the Monte Carlo Method, where the probabilities of each team in the competition to become champions are taken.

The Monte Carlo System

The Monte Carlo Method is a numerical statistical method used to estimate the possible outcomes of an uncertain event. It was invented by John von Neumann and Stanislaw Ulam during World War II and is named after the European gambling capital, Monte Carlo, and its famous roulette wheel.

Among the factors taken into account, it also assesses the fact that a team is playing something and its rival is not, or that neither of them is playing anything, which will make the result more uncertain. Its predictive model is very well explained on its website in English, but let’s get down to business, which teams are the big favorites in Europe according to your latest prediction?

Champions League

Manchester City and Bayern, the big favourites

The group of Guardiolaeven though no one has won yet champion, and the one of Nagelsmann are the main favorites to win the maximum continental club tournament, ahead of PSG, Liverpool and the current champion, the real Madrid.

top 10 favorites

By winning percentage in the final

1

Manchester City – 26%

two

Bayern Munich – 25%

3

PSG – 11%

4

Liverpool – 7%

5

Real Madrid – 7%

6

Naples – 5%

7

Chelsea-4%

8

Porto – 3%

9

Inter Milan – 3%

10

Benfica – 2%

European League

Barça, have the most options with Arsenal hiding

Despite the team’s poor results Xavi Hernandez in the Champions League, the Supercomputer sees the Barça team as the great favorite to win the European Leaguepreceded by Arsenal and the Ajax. Real society Y Legs they will have their choices, but fewer than favorites.

top 10 favorites

By winning percentage in the final

1

Barcelona – 24%

two

Arsenal – 15%

3

Ajax – 9%

4

United – 8%

5

Rennes – 4%

6

SC Freiburg – 4%

7

Royal Society – 4%

8

PSV – 3%

9

Betis – 3%

10

RB Salzburg – 3%

LaLiga Santander

The title, a matter of two: Barça or Madrid

The Barcelona are the favorites according to Supercomputer predictions to win the LaLiga Santander title this season. Despite going lower in the table, its odds are a bit higher than those of real Madrid. Both are far out of number Atletico Madrid, with little probabilities according to the projection, but a clear candidate to ensure their presence in the Champions zone (with a 56% probability). Fourth place will be disputed Athletic, Real Sociedad, Real Betis and Villarreal with similar options close to 30%. Elche, Cadiz and Gironathe latter by a narrow margin, point to decline.

Favorites for the title

Barca slight advantage

1

Barcelona – 56%

two

Real Madrid – 41%

3

Atletico Madrid – 2%

The possibilities of rejection

Elche, has the worst

1

Elche – 76%

two

Cádiz – 51%

3

Girona – 28%

4

Spanish – 26%

5

Valladolid – 26%

6

Almeria – 23%

7

Getafe – 18%

8

Mallorca – 15%

9

Seville – 13%

10

Celtic – 13%

premier league

Manchester City, almost no rivals

The Premier League is a walk for the team of Pep Guardiola as predicted by the FiveThirtyEight Supercomputer. only the Arsenal He has decent percentage options to reclaim the title from the ‘citizens’. The Liverpooldespite his bad moments, he had no problem entering the Champions League, with Man Utd and they will come down Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and Wolves.

Favorites for the title

The City, very clearly the favourite

1

Manchester City – 73%

two

Arsenal – 16%

3

United – 3%

4

Liverpool – 2%

5

Tottenham – 2%

6

Chelsea-2%

7

Newcastle – 1%

Bundesliga

Bayern or Bayern in Germany

Despite being tight this time the German championship, the Bayern He is the top candidate to win the title. Neither is the leader Union Berlin, by Freiburg or Dortmund they almost have options to give surprise. The Schalke-04 and the Bochum are the most likely to decrease, with 74% and 66%, respectively, far from Hertha, Augsburg or Stuttgart They can also downgrade.

Options for the title

Undisputed Bayern

1

Bayern – 89%

two

Dortmund – 4%

3

SC Freiburg – 2%

4

Union Berlin – 2%

A series

The year of Naples

The Naples was the top favorite to win the Italian league earlier Inter and Milan, the next likely teams. The four most obvious candidates for relegation are Spezia, Cremonense, Sampdoria and Lecce, in order from most to least, all of them have more than 40% probability.

Candidates for the Italian league

Napoli took advantage

1

Naples – 61%

two

Inter Milan – 13%

3

AC Milan – 12%

4

Rome – 5%

5

Atalanta – 5%

6

Lazio – 2%

7

Juventus – 1%

Ligue 1

The most unequal league in Europe: authoritarian PSG

The PSG with his trio of Messi, Neymar and Mbappé and his inexhaustible resources he is unrivaled France. Such was his dominance that he exceeded the 90 percent chance of winning the title in the absence of a world to play for. In reality, the French championship has become a race to find out who will be with him in the Champions League more than the title. Angers, Auxerre, Ajaccio and Brest They have the most numbers going down.

The candidates for the title

Only a miracle can prevent the title for PSG

1

PSG – 91%

two

Rennes – 3%

3

Lenses – 3%

4

Marseille – 1%