Expectations and predictions for the 2023 F1 season

This weekend, at Bahrain (from March 3 to 5) the period of Formula 1 2023, which will have a total of 23 appointments. The greatest show in the world gives its starting signal on the circuit of sakhir, and he does so with many doubts to resolve. The first, obviously: Can anyone stop Max Verstappen and Red Bull? But there are many more. It remains to be seen if Ferrari can be close to the current champions and fight Carlos Sainz and his teammate Charles Leclerc for the title until the end. There is also an unknown about Mercedes, which has a better base than in 2022, and knowing whether Alonso, at the beginning of his time at Aston Martin, can enter the fight for the podium from the start.

Red Bull, rival to beat

The perfect trio that makes up the energy drinks team, their car and Max Verstappen have taken the last two world titles. Last year, in the premiere of the current regulations, Max took his second crown and Red Bull won the Constructors’ World Championship with a perfect second half of the season. Max achieved 15 victories from a possible 22 and after what was seen in this year’s pre-season tests, the 25-year-old driver started as the strong favourite.
Red Bull finished last year with the best car, the best box from which to start for the creation of the 2023 car. And they seem to have taken advantage of it with a car that was scared in preseason testing. But be careful: during the year they will have less time available for the development of their car due to the penalty that fell on the group for exceeding the budget limit allowed for 2021. In other words, their theoretical rivals, Ferrari and Mercedes, need to take advantage of this to improve the car during the year to catch them.
A good start is expected from Red Bull, but as we saw last year with Ferrari, the important thing is not how it starts, but how it ends. They know this at Ferrari, where Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc want to fight for everything. Also at Mercedes, with Lewis Hamilton and George Russell keen to join the fight before 2022.

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Ferrari, to correct mistakes and progress

Ferrari had a car that won last year, but where they had to change a lot of things. They improved the reliability of their engine and that meant more horsepower. They have also improved their air resistance and this means more points in a straight line. The degradation is the point that they have to continue polishing this beginning, something that should affect them a lot in Bahrain, but we have to see how it is in other types of circuits with different characteristics. Ferrari must understand their car to get the most out of it to get close to those from Milton Keynes, who now have the clearest idea.

Ferrari needs to take advantage of the Red Bull sanction, with less time in the wind tunnel and simulations to develop its car, to get closer to the whole year with evolutions and no margin of error.

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Mercedes, better base than 2022

For its part, Mercedes suffered some grip problems in Bahrain but its base compared to last year is better. In 2022 they started with a car that caused many problems and despite this they ended up in the last rounds of the course. No one doubts that, starting from a better point, they should join the battle with Red Bull earlier. The question is whether they will do it with enough time to fight for the title. If they succeed, F1 fans will be lucky to see Verstappen and Hamilton face each other again after the controversial result of 2021. The great evolution of the last year could make Mercedes a clear candidate for second place behind Ferrari . It is up to the Italians to maintain the evolutionary speed that Mercedes will surely have.

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Alonso, the beginning of the mission

Joining the top three teams could be Aston Martin, or so it looks like it could be in the first rounds of the year, starting this weekend in Bahrain.
Despite the fact that Aston Martin completely renewed its car compared to last year, the birth of the AMR23 was very good. Alonso was delighted with the behavior of his car and showed it by achieving excellent times every time he tried despite the fuel load. But above all, the car’s potential was seen in racing speed.

In the long run, the wear of the tires is less than Ferrari and Mercedes and that strength puts him for many in the middle of a battle with two of the three good starters, waiting to see how the changes green car and its competitors during the course.

This could be a good start for a team that needs to establish the initial goal of leading the midfield (it comes from being the 7th in 2022) as just the beginning of a long-term journey that wants to end with victories in a few year
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Over time, Aston Martin announced that it intended to change “two thirds” of the car with an intensive evolution program. The goal is to take steps forward. Initially, they can opt for the podiums due to their good race pace, but it will be necessary to see if with this ambitious development program they can stay in the fight with the best teams as they develop also in their evolutions.

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Middle zone: Alpine, Alfa Romeo and Haas start at the front

Alpine, with its great racing speed shown in the tests, starts as the main favorite to lead a very tight group after the 4 best teams: Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes and Aston Martin. It does this with a very good A523, but it has to fight from the start with a very good Alfa Romeo. The doubt in Alfa Romeo, a structure based in Switzerland (Sauber), is to see if they can have a good program of evolutions. Last year they started well but faded due to lack of improvements throughout the year. There, it also remains to be seen what Haas does, which seems to be starting right behind Alfa Romeo. Then there’s AlphaTauri, McLaren and Williams. McLaren was the big disappointment of the year and it seems they are starting back, with many problems. It happened to them last year and they improved their car a lot to fight for the lead in the middle zone against Alpine. That should be the script this year. The red lantern seems cheap for AlphaTauri and Williams.