Can Alonso achieve victory 33 in Jeddah today? all the keys

Fernando Alonso will start second this Sunday at F1 Saudi Arabian GP 2023. The Asturian pilot will start behind the ‘poleman’ ‘Czech’ Perezwho took first place on the grid yesterday by taking advantage of the excellent performance of his red bull and the mechanical problem suffered by his partner Verstappenwhich will be released today from 15th place with the need to go back to the beginning. The race looks exciting, with Alonso leads George Russell (3rd), Carlos Sainz (4th), his teammate Lance Stroll (5th), Esteban Ocon (6th) and Lewis Hamilton (7th).

Could Alonso’s 33rd win be real in Jeddah? We examine the most important key to what can happen here F1 Saudi Arabian GP and the Asturian’s choices to achieve what would be his 33rd victory in Formula 1.

The exit

In theory, Red Bull has a higher race speed. Consequently, Fernando Alonso, to increase his chances of fighting for victory, He must attack from the start to try to gain a position with ‘Checo’ and thus prevent him from escaping from the start. Passing the Mexican at the start could put additional pressure on Pérez. It was not easy, as this was the second outing for the Asturian with Aston Martin and his first start in Bahrain was not good. In the first laps the DRS could not be activated and that should have been the moment for Alonso to attack to gain some distance.

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racing speed

Fernando Alonso warned on Saturday: “We are confident. The car is strong and our strong point is how we manage the tires and the speed of the race. We are hopeful and we must be better.” However, on Friday, in FP2, ‘Checo’ showed good race speed, slightly higher than Alonso’s Aston Martin with medium tyres. Is it true? at that moment the Spaniard was not comfortable with the balance of the car and his pace should be better this Sunday after the set-up changes applied. Despite this, the Spaniard believes that the Mexican will not be able to compete without luck on his side.

“Losing Red Bull? I don’t think we’re in that position yet. I think Red Bull is in a different league and we need to focus on the teams behind it. Even if we focus on our rear-view mirror and try to keep everything behind us, if there is an opportunity in the future, we will try to take it.” Bet on having some lucky breaks for ‘Checo’. But it is necessary to see if in the race Pérez manages to impose his theoretical superiority in rhythm. Mike Krack, Aston Martin Team Principal, thinks differently and believes that his car is “strong” and that “victory is not impossible”.

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Red Bull straight line speed

On a track with so many straights, The Red Bull is favored for its higher top speed. And that’s not all. Yes Fernando Alonso He passed Pérez, the Red Bull has the most powerful DRS of all and in a straight line the Mexican could have a great weapon to turn the game around. Despite this, the Aston Martin Principal Team didn’t worry about that because of the strength their car showed in the corners.

“I’m not worried about (the speed on the straight), because we have a very strong car in the corners and we have to try to stay away from the corners so we don’t get caught on the straights. This is not the power of the car, but I think we are strong enough not to worry about the straights“, argued Mike Crack about.

So, if Alonso can pass ‘Checo’ at the start, he has to try to distance himself in the curve to make it more difficult for ‘Checo’ to attack. If not, he will have to take advantage of that cornering performance to avoid the Mexican slipping in the first two laps of the race, before he can activate the DRS.

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The ‘Safety Car’ is a fixture in Jeddah

He has already taken the victory from Pérez at Jeddah 2022

He ‘Safety Vehicle’ This is a fixture in Jeddah. With such a fast average race speed (more than 250 km/h on average) and between the walls, his appearance is taken for granted. The question is another: When will it appear? Hitting the timing of the stops will be key. ‘Checo’ Pérez already knows. At the 2022 Saudi Arabian GP he was the race leader when he entered the pits as a result of a feint from Ferrari. Then, the ‘Safety Car’ came out due to an accident by Latifi and that gave his rivals a free stop. From the lead, he moved into fourth and finished in that position. This is what Alonso was referring to when he spoke of “some opportunity to take advantage of.” Throughout the race, everyone knows that ‘Salvation’ can appear at any time.

In this regard, a possible strategy for Alonso is to try to extend his stops if he manages the tires very well and maintains a speed that allows it. Already, crossing our fingers that ‘Safety’ gives him wings with a free stop.

‘Safety’ will regroup the cars and the distances will be reduced to nothing. That will make things better. So if Perez pulls away from the start, all that margin could be gone when the safety car comes out. And if that happens, anyone more strategically prepared can take advantage of it. It may also happen that there was a red flag with a subsequent stop. Anything can happen and nothing can be taken for granted. A ‘Salvation’ in the final moments can turn into a close final sprint battle.
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In this sense, it is important to highlight that the safety car can favor Verstappen in his return, as it will reunite the cars and reduce his lack of leadership to continue climbing the places.

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Verstappen will come

Verstappenthe one who is a great favorite for pole position and the victory due to the great superiority he showed during the weekend, will start 15th due to a mechanical problem he suffered at ‘qualy’. His speed should be very strong and he can use his top straightline speed and strong DRS to gain positions. ‘Salvation’ can help him by reuniting the cars and no one doubts that he will reach the top. alonso it is clear: “I think Max will come at some point in the race. I don’t know which race was the last to start and finish on top. I have no doubt that he will reach the podium somehow.”

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Strategy

It was not expected Alonso and Aston Martin risk starting strategy, knowing the importance of the good points they can collect in the Saudi Arabian GP and that, a priori, the goal should be to defend second place. In Jeddah there is little damage and possibly a stop, but it depends on many factors. It is important to take advantage of any ‘Safety Car’ to get a free stop which gives you an advantage over your rivals.

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Reliability

Verstappen had a bearing problem yesterday. And Ferrari came from suffering a double setback at its switchboard in Bahrain and changed the combustion engines of its two cars. Reliability issues may occur. This is undoubtedly another one of the keys that can mark the race, especially in a circuit that is very demanding for the engine and where the battle can be very exciting.