This is what the 2025 F1 driver transfer market will look like without ‘hot potato’ Verstappen

This year, the Formula 1 transfer market is being atypical. Everything exploded with the unexpected announcement of Lewis Hamilton for Ferrari for 2025 as soon as possible, in January, something that left Carlos Sainz full of ‘lover’ with no space. And from there, the Spaniard’s situation floundered until his signing with Williams was announced.

After that confirmation, there are 4 more seats free in 2025 grid and above all, the unknown that the whole paddock is talking about: Will Max Verstappen stay at Red Bull or will he go to Mercedes?

Currently, with the return of the competition after the summer break in ZandvoortWith 10 races to go, there are still 4 teams that must complete their lineups upon announcing their second man. We define Alpinethat only Pierre has Gasly, Sauber (Audi in 2026), who signed Hulkenberg by 2025, RBwhich has Yuki Tsunoda, and the most desirable seat available: that of Mercedes next to George Russell.

Alpine, for her second man

Of those 4 teams, two slowed down in the time it took Sainz to decide to go to Williams: Alpine and Sauber, as both teams had signing the Madrid native as their top priority. Now, for the French company, the option may be the Australian promotion Jack Doohan (son of legendary motorcycle racer Mick Doohan) to accompany Gasly.

In that sense, Flavio Briatorerecently appointed adviser to the CEO of the Renault Group in F1, should not worry about leaving the second wheel to a young rookie like Jack because he recently said that the most important thing to him is not the driver, but focusing on technical aspects and make sure you make the right decisions for the year 2026, an important year due to massive technical changes and engine regulations.

The name of Mick Schumacheralready linked to Alpine in the World Endurance Championship, although the German has also been mentioned for Audi.

Sauber: after Sainz’s ‘no’, Bottas can renew

Then there’s Sauber (Audi in 2026). They signed Nico Hülkenberg to have a German quota in the four rings brand project and with Sainz refusing, Valtteri Bottas seems to be the pole driver to renew, although his current teammate, Zhou Guanyu, is not being ruled out either.. Here we must add the hypothesis of Mick Schumacheralthough what Audi needs are two drivers with a lot of experience and car development capacity for its project from 2026 and Mick doesn’t meet that requirement.

RB doubt: Lawson, Ricciardo or Hadjar?

And on the other hand there is RB. With Yuki Tsunoda as the only confirmed pilot and a Daniel Ricciardo that’s far from what it is and unbelievably, the energy drinks team can promote its academy’s young talent, Isaac Hadjar19 year old French with good support. Hadjar leads the Formula 2 World Championship with his car from the Spanish Campos Racing team in his second year in the silver category and is taking that chance.

However, another pilot knocked on the door earlier. Liam Lawson3rd in Formula 2 in 2022, surprised with his performance in his fast F1 debut last year after Ricciardo’s injury at Zandvoort and performed at a good level in the 4 races he did despite his small experience. Some believe that Lawson, who this year gained experience in the competitive and complex Japanese Super Formula with a good 2nd place in the championship, is currently fighting for that seat with Daniel Ricciardo. Although Hadjar was very well positioned there.

And Perez?

‘Checo’ Pérez signed a multi-year contract this year with Red Bull, but since then, with an increasingly complex car that only Verstappen understands, he has suffered greatly. Red Bull confirmed him for the second half of this season but at home to Milton Keynes nothing can be taken for granted for next season. however, Red Bull has no one in the room to improve the Mexican’s times in the simulator and in the market, now that there is no Sainz available, there are no drivers that look better either.

Mercedes: will it wait for Verstappen?

And the last mystery remains. to Mercedes. Toto Wolff, head of the Mercedes team, told Mundo Deportivo a few weeks ago that he is in no rush to announce his second driver. He made it clear that the priority is Verstappen and to attract him he needs to focus on improving the car.know that the only thing Max What might convince you is the idea of ​​having a championship car.

Max’s condition has changed a lot since the beginning of the year. It started with the superior single-seater. But from Miami, Max struggles to win races with a car that is no longer dominant, with many balance problems on all tracks and with a car where he must fight to reach the limit.

If Mercedes takes advantage of the maximum wind tunnel time available in regulation on this second part of the course, you may have a good opportunity to continue improving your carwho have joined the battle for wins with McLaren and Max’s Red Bull in recent races. If this negative trend for Red Bull continues and Mercedes continues to rise, no one can take anything away. Wolff can hang on to that nail, knowing he doesn’t mind waiting even until December.

Antonelli, the most likely alternative

And in the bedroom he has young talent Andrea Kimi Antonelli, 17, who many consider could be the ‘new Verstappen’. The Bolognese, after winning everything in the lower categories, skipped the F3 pass to debut directly in F2 this year, where he is gradually adapting. A promotion at Mercedes with so much room for improvement seems rushed. This could put unnecessary pressure on the youngster in a context of maximum equality at the top, where Mercedes needs maximum performance from its two drivers to fight for the Constructors’ World Championship. however, If Verstappen didn’t come, he should have been chosen.

For now, Max has said in Austria that he will continue with Red Bull. And Toto Wolff responded in an interview with Mundo Deportivo: “The logical thing is that he continues with Red Bull, but this does not mean that things cannot change.”

If Max doesn’t change his mind, the position will go to Andrea, who has been filling up the test miles on F1 cars from previous years in recent months. And he is expected to make his F1 GP debut with Mercedes in Free Practice 1 at Monza, as regulations require teams to use at least two sessions a year to test young talents. Kimi will have two tests. His future depends on his performance in F2 and the tests. Or maybe Verstappen. Max has the key to everything. Or the signing of the century. Or the start of what many predict will be a historic career, that of Kimi Antonelli.

THIS IS THE 2025 F1 GRID AS OF NOW:

*IN BOLD: THE NEW SIGNATURES

Red Bull: Max Verstappen / Checo Pérez
McLaren: Lando Norris / Oscar Piastri
Mercedes: George Russell / CONFIRMED
Ferrari: Lewis Hamilton /Charles Leclerc
Aston Martin: Fernando Alonso / Lance Stroll
Alpine: Pierre Gasly / TO BE CONFIRMED
Haas: Oliver Bearman / Esteban Ocon
RB: Yuki Tsunoda / TBC
Williams: Alexander Albon / Carlos Sainz
Sauber: Nico Hulkenberg / TO CONFIRM