Even if the average global temperature rises by just 1.5 degrees Celsius, half of the world’s glaciers will be lost by 2100. And that is still the most optimistic scenario, according to a new study that also included researchers from Innsbruck. With the currently predicted warming of 2.7 degrees, central Europe, western Canada and the US will have disappeared from the ice age by 2100, an international research team reports in the journal Science.
The team led by David Rounce from Carnegie Mellon University (USA), which also included glaciologist Fabien Maussion from the Institute for Atmospheric and Cryosphere Sciences at the University of Innsbruck, presented a prediction model based on new data sets for the future of the world. 215,547 glaciers (excluding the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets) under four different climate scenarios.
Up to 83 percent of glaciers are threatened
So even in the most optimistic scenarios, glaciers will lose significantly more mass and contribute to greater sea level rise than currently believed. Depending on the rate of global warming, glaciers will lose about 26 percent (plus 1.5 degrees Celsius) to 41 percent (plus four degrees Celsius) of their mass by the year 2100 (based on the year 2015). This will lead to the disappearance of 49 to 83 percent of the glaciers. So even under the currently unrealistic, optimistic scenario of just 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, half of the world’s glaciers will be lost by the end of the century.
Linked to this is a much larger contribution of glaciers to sea level rise than is currently assumed. The melting glaciers alone will cause sea levels to rise by 90 to 154 millimeters according to the model.
Sea levels could rise more than a metre
Currently, the world is heading for an increase in global average temperature of 2.7 degrees Celsius given current emission reduction and climate action commitments. This would result in the disappearance of two-thirds of all glaciers worldwide by 2100, raising sea levels by 115 millimeters.
In most mid-latitude regions, the supposed “perpetual ice” would largely disappear, the scientists write in their work. This development is also related to changes in hydrology, ecology and natural hazards. This affects, for example, the availability of fresh water for nearly two billion people.
Researcher: “Every tenth degree less counts”
“The rapidly increasing losses of glacier mass with a global temperature rise of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius underline the urgency of more ambitious climate commitments to preserve the glaciers in these mountain regions,” the researchers emphasize. Every tenth of a degree less counts to curb melting.
According to Maussion, it is already too late for many glaciers. “But that doesn’t mean there’s nothing more we can do. Any reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and thus moving away from fossil fuels helps to save the remaining ice masses and limit sea level rise,” explains the glaciologist.
Source: Krone
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