Lula’s new reign will take place in a hostile context. Brazil is not the same as it was in 2003. Now the country is polarized, suffering from an economic crisis and submerged in a wave of corruption
After the second round of Brazil’s presidential election on October 30, Lula da Silva was elected against Jair Bolsonaro with a difference of less than 2% (50.9% vs. 49.1%). That small difference of two million votes allows Lula da Silva to stay in the Planalto Palace, the official residence of the president in Brasilia, from January 1, 2023.
However, they have also emboldened current President Bolsonaro who, far from suffering electoral rejection for his disastrous management of the pandemic and his always stilted statements, has increased his electoral support by more than a million votes since winning in 2018. , supported by the so-called triple B lobby: ox, with the entire agro-export sector; bullet, with all security and military forces; bible, featuring fundamentalists who are reactionary to progress in gender equality.
Thus, a very different Lula da Silva than his two previous terms (2003-2010) will take office in a context of extremely high polarization and in a Brazil divided, not so much by political affinity, but by identity and visceral rejection of the opponent. : antilulismo that criticizes corruption and the so-called “cultural Marxism” of the Workers’ Party versus anti-Bolsonarismo that criticizes reactionary elitism and the ruling elites’ promotion of growing inequality.
In this way, his government will now have much less room for action due to several factors: at the domestic level, it will be politically dependent on an ideologically heterogeneous inter-presidential coalition and will face a majority in the Bolsonaro Congress and Senate that controls many of the her policy. In addition, he will face a serious economic crisis that does not seem to be abating and where “the markets” have already shown their disapproval of Lula’s right-hand man and future economy minister, Fernando Haddad.
To this we must add high social fragmentation. It was hoped that a hypothetical World Cup victory for the canarinha could help reduce this fragmentation.
In addition, the latest challenges from the Bolsonarismo (it should be remembered that the current president has not yet explicitly acknowledged his electoral defeat) will put pressure on the government’s transition process, although it seems that the army’s neutrality is guaranteed. We must not forget that it was precisely during Lula’s previous administrations that they saw their budgets increase significantly. Similarly, the announcement of the next Defense Minister, José Múcio, who is highly regarded by the military establishment, was very well received.
Internationally, the new Brazilian government will also face major challenges, but perhaps this is a more favorable climate for Lula’s charismatic leadership. Brazil’s reintegration into the Latin American region under more like-minded presidents, such as Gabriel Boric’s Chile or Gustavo Petro’s Colombia, will undermine Bolsonaro’s vision of Brazil as a “regional pariah” opposed to all its neighbors and entrenched in Trump’s postulates. , nullify.
Similarly, on a more multilateral level, as already evident at the recent COP27 in Egypt last November, Lula’s presence together with its future Environment Minister, Marina Silva, clarified that Brazil is back in time to advance the climate agenda and the towards sustainable development goals.
Having said this, let no one be deceived: those who think with nostalgic undertones that Lula da Silva will have the ability to replicate Brazil’s resurgence as a global player, which he has already irradiated in his previous mandates, are dead wrong. Managing these outrageous expectations on the part of its constituents and the hypothetical frustrations that ensue will, in fact, be the great thermometer the Lula administration will have to watch.
Brazil has returned and Lula will aspire to be the same person who has lifted millions of Brazilians out of poverty, but Brazil is no longer the same, and the world of 2022 is not the same as it was in 2003. Of course, good prospects to the extent that Brazil will once again occupy a prominent place in international relations, both as a key player in Latin America and as a privileged interlocutor with the United States and the European Union on the one hand, and with China and the Global South on the other.
The great challenge will therefore lie in healing the wounds, overcoming polarization, reactivating the economy and reforming a political system that encourages corruption and popular political discontent. Quite a task even for Lula.
This article was published in The conversation.
Source: La Verdad
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