Russia expert: – ‘Only Putin has it in his hands to end the war’

crown.at: Time and time again, there are voices that arms should not be supplied to Ukraine – as this would only prolong the war. But is it really that simple?
Peter Ruggenthaler: This is not just any war, but a war of aggression, and that through a UN veto. The international order was decisively shaped by the Soviet Union after 1945 and has now been destroyed by Putin. The Ukrainians will not surrender. There has been war in their country since 2014 and since the escalation a year ago they have been fighting for their survival. You know what to expect. You can imagine what will happen if Wagner’s criminals march on, or even the regular Russian army. More children and women are raped, kidnapped and murdered. It is Ukraine’s legitimate right to obtain arms. They need weapons to defend themselves. Only Putin has the power to end the war. But he doesn’t. For almost a year he has been attacking relentlessly, wasting the lives of tens of thousands who are sent to their deaths for no reason at the front. During this time, the Russian army made no significant territorial gains. At the moment, one can only hope that one day this realization will prevail in the Kremlin and the fronts will at least freeze.

And then?
Then you should leave Putin alone. If he sees his power threatened from outside, the danger of a nuclear war increases. One can only speak of a new democratic beginning when it is history one day. But even if suddenly there was a new Mikhail Gorbachev – it will take years to restore confidence.

Are we in a new Cold War?
Thinking about the Cold War is over. The division of Europe into spheres of influence was accepted at the time. The West watched idly as popular uprisings, revolutions and reform movements such as in 1953 in the GDR, 1956 in Hungary or 1968 in Czechoslovakia were violently crushed with tanks.

You hear time and time again that Putin wages wars to gain popular support. How do you see it?
The annexation of Crimea was certainly also a means of consolidating Putin’s claim to power. When he named himself president of Russia again in 2012 after the agreed move with Medvedev, the Russian population rumbled. Putin’s support levels were in the basement. Tens of thousands of Muscovites regularly demonstrated. But people also took to the streets in other parts of the country. Then Putin drew the “national card”. In fact, his popularity ratings skyrocketed.

There is hope, I suspect, from the majority of people in Russia who are not willing to support the war without ifs and buts. Hundreds of thousands of men fled abroad. A large part of the population is silent out of fear. For years, Putin had protesters clubbed and imprisoned. When the host of a well-known propaganda show at the Kremlin demanded that Ukrainian children be drowned or burned in October, outrage also arose in Russia. But you can see where this artificially constructed fascist ideology, dictated from above, leads. In other words, putting Russian above everything and denying the Ukrainians the right to exist. Russian soldiers boasted about torturing and killing Ukrainians. It must be feared that beastly war crimes were not only committed in Bucha, Borodjanka and Irpin.

Critics would now point out that silence also makes one guilty. Do you agree? Is there a Russian collective sense of guilt?
There is no collective guilt. But the question of a society’s responsibility is a difficult one. Are parents of young children guilty if they do not openly oppose a regime? What if they risk going to prison and having their children put under state care and certainly ideologically re-educated?

So you can’t hope for a revolution in Russia?
Ukraine will probably have to hold out as long as Putin is in power. But there comes a time after him. It is impossible to predict how this era will end. But often history happens faster than expected.