Vienna-based sociologist Kenan Güngör expects President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to be voted out in Turkey’s upcoming presidential election in the long run. If Erdogan’s challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu is not in the first ballot, he should be able to win the second round. The voters of the other two candidates would tend to be in opposition. Güngör sees the earthquake zone in Southeast Turkey as a “large area of uncertainty”. There can be major attempts at manipulation.
Because the election campaign is “manipulated”. However, the question is whether the ballot papers were also manipulated. The political adviser does not believe that this is happening on a very large scale. In an interview with the APA, Güngör denounces the massive deployment of the state apparatus by Erdogan and his conservative Islamist AK party. This goes so far that the interior minister even demanded access to the ballot boxes, which is an “absolute no go”. However, the electoral authorities were able to repel this attack. The opposition is also doing everything it can to prevent electoral fraud.
Can the opposition candidate win an absolute majority right away?
One thing is certain: Erdogan will not win on the first ballot. Kilicdaroglu, on the other hand, could immediately create an absolute majority. That depends on how many votes go to the other candidates, Kilicdaroglu’s ex-party friend Muharrem Ince and nationalist Sinan Ogan. The pundit said that “60 to 70 percent” of their voters would choose Kilicdaroglu in the second round. “Then it should work (for the Leader of the Opposition).” Of course, this only applies if no unforeseen events such as terrorist attacks intervene. The 74-year-old Kilicdaroglu has recently taken a slight lead in the polls. Especially since the devastating earthquakes of February 6, it has won.
Until now, Erdogan has been able to count on the support of Turks abroad, including in Austria. This too can change considerably. Güngör expects about 60 percent of foreign voters in Austria to vote for Erdogan this time. Five years ago it was still 73 percent. The record participation of more than 56 percent in Austria is due to a stronger mobilization of the opposition camp. “It is an election in which the opposition has a realistic chance of winning for the first time,” explains Güngör. On the other hand, there is a “slight tendency to distance” among traditional AKP voters.
Foreign voters are viewed critically
According to the expert, it is not excluded that Erdogan can keep up with the votes of the Turks abroad and force a second round. In Turkey, the role of foreign voters has been “critically discussed” for some time. “You have lived abroad for decades, you determine our fate and bear no consequences,” is the reproach of many Turks in the mother country.
“Marshall Plan” for Turkey
Should there be a change of power, the European Union must support the new government. It is feared that the economic crisis will deepen after the elections, as a drop in the cash register is likely to reveal major financial problems that the Erdogan government has “covered up,” Güngör said. That is why a “Marshall Plan” is needed for Turkey.
Source: Krone
I am Wallace Jones, an experienced journalist. I specialize in writing for the world section of Today Times Live. With over a decade of experience, I have developed an eye for detail when it comes to reporting on local and global stories. My passion lies in uncovering the truth through my investigative skills and creating thought-provoking content that resonates with readers worldwide.
