What if… – Does a nuclear catastrophe play into Putin’s hands?

Last year, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, warned that the Russian occupiers had mined the Kakhovka dam. Questions were quickly raised about the usefulness of such a suicide squad. The answer then: little to no sense. The collateral damage would be too great.

On June 6, parts of the dam wall actually collapsed. Initial investigations point to controlled demolition by Russian forces. Since then, several ecosystems have been flooded and destroyed. Human remains have been pushed to the surface in cemeteries and vast tracts of land have been plagued by further contamination.

But the much more important news for the Kremlin: the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south of the country has been made considerably more difficult and the cry for “peace” is once again louder.

Now Budanov and Volodymyr Zelenskyy warn again about mines and “explosive-like objects”. This time on the roofs of reactors three and four of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in Zaporizhia. And again the question is: what is the point of actively causing a catastrophe?

Who Controls Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant?
The power plant is on the front line near the city of Enerhodar and has been controlled by Russian occupiers since March 2022. However, the nuclear power plant is mainly run by Ukrainian personnel. Initially, workers were forced to work at “at gunpoint,” the head of Ukrainian nuclear operator Energoatom reported at the time.

To ensure safety, a small delegation from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been on site since September 2022. Rafael Grossi, head of the IAEA, recently criticized that he and his team would not have full access to the area.

Grossi also confirmed in mid-June that authorities had long known about explosives outside the nuclear power plant’s premises – for defense purposes, the Russian occupiers said. No mines were found inside, certainly not near the cooling pond. The IAEA experts say they have not yet received permission to inspect the roofs of the reactors.

What would happen in an explosion?
Exactly how a nuclear catastrophe would hit Zaporizhia is very difficult to predict. The fact that the reactors have not produced electricity for months should at least limit the magnitude of such an incident.

After detonation of the reported explosives, this would “open up a cold reactor, releasing spent fuel into the air and giving off some radiation,” William Alberque, director of strategy, technology and arms control at the International Institute for Strategy Studies, told CNN.

Cheryl Rofer, a nuclear expert and former researcher, recently wrote in a blog post that the six reactors at Zaporizhia were nothing like Chernobyl’s reactor. “NPP’s reactors have hard oxide fuel that is metal-lined and contained in a stainless steel canister. Chernobyl didn’t have such a container.”

Clemens Walther, head of the Institute for Radioecology and Radiation Protection at the University of Hanover, recently explained to the “Spiegel” that even a core meltdown does not necessarily lead to a European nuclear catastrophe: “Normally, the molten core in would end up in the large concrete basement of the building, radioactivity would hardly escape to the outside.”

Alberque said the scale would be comparable to the 1979 Three Mile Island nuclear disaster in Pennsylvania. According to information from the US government, 636,000 people within about 15 miles of the reactor were contaminated with small doses of radioactivity. But as mentioned at the beginning, such a process is far from certain for Ukraine.

Would a nuclear disaster benefit Russia?
No It is considered certain that the Russian population would also suffer damage in the vicinity of the power plant. In addition, it is unclear what military-strategic advantages Russia could derive from blowing up a reactor. The sabotage would likely have diplomatic ramifications as well.

The Financial Times reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping has personally warned Vladimir Putin about the use of nuclear weapons of any kind in Ukraine. The newspaper refers to Western and Chinese officials. The Kremlin called the report “fiction”.

Zelensky repeatedly argued that with nuclear catastrophe imminent, Putin would pressure Western allies to convince Ukraine to end the conflict (see tweet below).

What is certain is that Putin and his accomplices have proven time and time again that human (survival) life is not that important to them. Should a catastrophe actually occur, the call for “peace”, and thus for recognition of forcibly displaced national borders, could become louder.

It is hard to imagine Putin giving up what is probably his main tool of blackmail. However, blowing up the Kachowka Dam was also downplayed as a utopia – like many other things before that.