“Long, hard, bloody” – is the Ukrainian counter-offensive just failing?

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Ukraine’s counter-offensive is progressing slowly. According to the US military, this is not due to the Russian forces, but due to explosive obstacles in the ground. Nervousness is growing in the West – as Russia builds more and more threats.

Ukraine has been counterattacking for several weeks, but many Western allies are becoming increasingly nervous. The reason: Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s troops are advancing very slowly. Performance is currently measured in meters and not kilometers. This fact causes more and more headaches.

Many support countries are struggling with high inflation, rising interest rates and slow growth. Their heads of state are increasingly having to justify their ongoing financial and material donations to Ukraine, while opposition forces are publicly questioning the extra spending – and are outperforming governing parties in polls.

race against the clock
Many parliamentary seats will be reallocated in the next year and a half: elections are coming up in Austria, Europe and the US. The stakes have increased significantly recently.

Joe Biden’s decision to supply Ukraine with internationally banned cluster munitions suggests a certain urgency. The front lines in southern and eastern Ukraine have barely moved in recent months, giving Russian troops plenty of time to entrench themselves and set up the necessary defenses (see graph below).

Zelenskyj’s most recent remarks can be taken as a reference to the West: “Every meter, every kilometer costs lives.” The Ukrainian president wants to make strategic decisions about where the troops should go. “You can do something very quickly, but the field is down to the ground. People are our treasure. So we are very careful.”

US wants peace
The US military leadership is now also pressing its index finger to its upper and lower lips: “The Ukrainians are advancing steadily and purposefully,” Chief of Staff Mark Milley said Tuesday at the US Defense Department after an online meeting of the international Ukraine. contact group for the coordination of military aid. “This is anything but a failure,” he added after a pertinent question.

It is much too early to come to such a conclusion. “I think there’s still a lot to fight for, and I stand by what we said before: it’s going to take a long time, it’s going to be hard, it’s going to be bloody.” Milley gave the same reason for the slow advance as Zelenskyj: mining area.

Mine as the strongest opponent
Ukraine’s casualties are often due to minefields and not the strength of the Russian air force, the general said. In addition, Ukraine suffers from ammunition problems because it fires more than is produced in the West.

The US government on Wednesday announced new military aid to Ukraine worth about 1.16 billion euros. In particular, this is intended to strengthen the defense of Ukrainian airspace and meet the need for ammunition, the Pentagon said. The new equipment would come from industry rather than US military inventories, as even US supplies are finite.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin previously assured Ukraine’s allies would continue to deliver: “Our work continues and we will do everything we can to ensure that Ukrainians can succeed.” Western analysts such as the Institute for War Studies (ISW) believe that the counter-offensive, even if successful, will not end the war. However, it could turn out to be a crucial episode and strengthen Kiev’s position in any negotiations. But for that to happen, there must be success now.

Because while social media and various political talk shows struggle to define failure, Russia is launching counterattacks that stand in the way of progress. A Ukrainian army press officer spoke on television about 100,000 men that Russia had allegedly gathered on the Kuyansk and Lyman fronts. Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maljar also reports on Telegram about the attacks by large Russian contingents in the Kupyansk sector.

Wagner convoy arrives in Belarus
In addition, Ukraine is threatened by a new threat from the north. A large convoy of suspected Wagner fighters has arrived from Russia at a camp near Minsk, new satellite images show. The BBC reports that dozens of vehicles have entered the camp at Tsel, a disused military base in southern Belarus.

The camp first appeared in late June. Shortly before, Wagner’s weekend mutiny against Russia’s military leadership had been declared over. Vladimir Putin gave the mercenaries the freedom to join the regular army, go to Belarus or return to civilian life.

The latest footage suggests that Wagner has now begun moving large numbers of soldiers – and that Putin is refocusing the war of attrition. If the subjugation of Ukraine is accomplished very quickly at first, the Kremlin is now playing for time. Because after a year and a half, completely new faces could take a seat at the negotiating table, from Washington DC to Vienna.

Source: Krone

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