Economic factors more important than climate

They took into account, among other things, national averages and birth and death rates. The latter were combined with total population growth to calculate immigration. The researchers ultimately identified the role of socio-economics and climate using the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) and an index on climatic drought. A key finding: People emigrated mainly from areas in Central America, Northeastern Brazil, Central Africa and Southeast Asia. These areas were in the middle range of the scale.

Income plays a role
Previous research had already shown that people in middle-income countries were more likely to emigrate if they were exposed to environmental stress, says co-author Raya Muttarek, who conducts research in Laxenburg near Vienna. The poorest, on the other hand, would not flee from environmental disasters or environmental changes.

Another result is that regions in the Arabian Peninsula, North America, Australia and the northern Mediterranean have many immigrants despite their drought. The decisive factor is the high Human Development Index, which takes into account, among other things, gross national income per capita, the duration of education and life expectancy. This also confirms that economic reasons for migration are important.

The conventional wisdom that urban areas attract people from rural areas has not been verified. This was not the case in parts of Congo, Indonesia, Pakistan and Venezuela. “Rather than focusing solely on closing borders and fighting migration, we must work to support and empower people in economically disadvantaged countries. “This would help reduce the factors that force people to migrate in search of better opportunities,” said study leader Matti Kummu from Aalto University, Finland.

The research team has now created an interactive online map that relates global migration rates to the country’s population.