Whether the EU heads of state or government should kick off accession negotiations with Ukraine at their summit in mid-December is currently being hotly debated in the European capitals. There are many supporters, but also major skeptics – especially Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Even though it is purely hypothetical at the moment, a lot of money from the EU budget would flow to Ukraine upon accession. German experts have calculated this.
The German Economic Institute (IW) estimates the financial impact of full membership on the EU’s current multi-year budget at around 130 to 190 billion euros, according to a report published on Monday. That would amount to 17 percent of the joint multi-year budget. This includes approximately €1.1 trillion from 2021 to 2027.
The exact amount depends on what assumptions are made about the arable land area and population for Ukraine, the economists write. In their calculations they assume 70 to 90 billion euros in agricultural subsidies for Ukraine. The so-called cohesion policy would cost 50 to 90 billion euros. These funds are intended to help structurally weak regions to grow and thus compensate for economic and social disparities in European regions.
Experts: This would require reforming the EU
“Given this volume, the EU should be ready to reform,” the experts continue. Only in this way can the political decision to bind Ukraine more closely to itself with the prospect of accession be credible. This applies both at institutional and budgetary levels, i.e. in the area of the budget. For example, they propose limiting cohesion spending to the poorer Member States.
Source: Krone
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