Despite downward trend – decreasing immune protection has an infection-increasing effect

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The corona contagion curve continues to fall sharply in this country – a trend that is likely to continue into the coming week, according to the Covid forecast consortium. The number of hospital patients also continues to fall. However, the Committee is not yet able to clarify everything: the ever-decreasing decline in immune protection is, after all, becoming increasingly important.

On the one hand, we are currently benefiting from the seasonal effect (less infections in spring and summer), but it is already clear that the protection provided by vaccination is decreasing. The timing and strength of this effect cannot be precisely quantified at this time according to the current forecast.

Accordingly, both slight increases and slight decreases are possible in the coming week. The number of Covid 19 patients in hospitals is also decreasing slightly.

Critical variants are spreading more and more
Virus variants BA.4/BA.5 and BA.2.12.1 are now classified as variants of concern by ECDC and are already dominant or on the verge of becoming dominant in some regions of the world. According to international observation data, these variants should have growth advantages over their predecessors.

The share of these variants is currently also increasing in Austria and, according to the forecast, in Vienna, for example, will be around eight percent.

Vorarlberg probably with the fewest infections
For next Wednesday, a seven-day incidence of between 130 and 210 cases per 100,000 inhabitants is now expected, with an average of 160. The lowest incidence is expected in Vorarlberg (81 to 130) and the highest incidence in Vienna (200 to 330). . The experts expect that there will be between 1661 and 2734 new infections next Wednesday, the average is 2072.

Normal wards are expected to drop to 309 infected people by June 8, and 505 people who tested positive still needed hospital care on Wednesday. The experts estimate that the number of Covid intensive care patients should fall from 44 to 33 in the next two weeks. Due to the currently very low area numbers, usual weekday-related fluctuations can lead to high relative deviations, but this was emphasized.

Source: Krone

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