According to a study, the chronic ineffectiveness of Russian forces is having drastic consequences. There is apparently a growing willingness in Russia to use tactical nuclear weapons in a possible conflict with the Western military alliance NATO.
According to the study published on Monday by the renowned British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the considerations are fueled by the lack of success of Russian troops in Ukraine.
Dangerous loss of trust
This has led to a loss of confidence in conventional forces, which some Russian strategists believe could be offset by the threat of tactical nuclear weapons. Non-strategic nuclear weapons include all missiles with nuclear warheads with a range of up to 5,500 kilometers.
This concerns nuclear weapons that have been developed for use on battlefields. Excluded are long-range strategic nuclear weapons that could destroy the Russian or American state and are the backbone of nuclear deterrence.
Authors speak of ‘controlled escalation’
From a Russian perspective, the West’s threat to use nuclear weapons or accept a high-casualty war is hardly credible, writes the study’s author, William Alberque. This furthers Russia’s willingness to use tactical nuclear weapons.
Accordingly, a conflict could be escalated in a controlled manner, “either to deter the US and NATO from becoming involved or to force them to end the war on Russian terms,” the report said.
Russian analysts were concerned
As evidence, Alberque cites, among others, the Russian analyst Sergei Karaganov. Last year he spoke of the need to threaten nuclear strikes in Europe to intimidate and “sober up” Moscow’s enemies. According to Alberque, Karaganov is participating in a broader discussion in Russia about the military’s inability to win the war in Ukraine clearly and quickly.
Fears are growing among Russian experts that military failure could prompt the West to take further steps against Russian interests.
What might a response look like?
The major risk of using tactical nuclear weapons, however, is whether this will lead to a devastating use of strategic nuclear weapons. The government in Moscow must calculate the right ‘dose’ to force its enemies to concede rather than trigger an escalation, Alberque writes. In the US, the question of how to respond to attacks with tactical nuclear weapons is giving strategists sleepless nights, the former employee of the US Department of Defense and NATO explains.
How can the escalation to the point of destruction be stopped? “This is one of the most difficult problems, a problem that has existed since the beginning of the atomic age.”
At the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that anyone who tried to hinder Russia would face consequences “that you have never experienced in your history.” Last summer he had tactical nuclear weapons moved to allied Belarus. However, this has not stopped the US and other NATO partners from massively arming Ukraine or providing the country with other military aid.
A nuclear attack can hardly be kept secret
According to the study, if Russia actually wants to deploy tactical nuclear weapons, this should not go unnoticed by the West. Western secret services are able to recognize relevant clues, the author writes. This concerns, for example, the movement of nuclear weapons from a central storage facility to an air base.
In addition, the entire Russian nuclear command and control system would likely be put on high alert. It is also expected that Putin will go to a nuclear fallout shelter.
Source: Krone
I am Wallace Jones, an experienced journalist. I specialize in writing for the world section of Today Times Live. With over a decade of experience, I have developed an eye for detail when it comes to reporting on local and global stories. My passion lies in uncovering the truth through my investigative skills and creating thought-provoking content that resonates with readers worldwide.
