Climate change: should the hurricane scale be expanded?

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Because the strength of tropical cyclones has increased dramatically in recent years, American researchers are now calling for an expansion of the hurricane scale by five levels.

The highest levels to date include hurricanes with wind speeds of 70 meters per second or more. However, in recent years several tropical cyclones have had wind speeds of more than 86 meters per second (about 310 km/h), write Michael Wehner of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in Berkeley and James Kossin of the University of Wisconsin-Madison in the United States . “Proceedings” of the American Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

Five strongest storms in the last nine years since 1980
An analysis of data from 1980 to 2021 found that five storms would have been placed in the new hypothetical category six, according to the authors. All of these storms occurred in the last nine years of the data series. One reason for the increase is climate change and the associated rise in sea temperatures. This provides additional thermal energy for the hurricanes, which could become stronger.

The strongest of the five hurricanes, Hurricane Patricia, struck the eastern Pacific Ocean in 2015 and made landfall in Mexico. The remaining four were typhoons, as tropical cyclones in the Pacific Northwest are called. Among them was ‘Haiyan’, which struck densely populated islands in the Philippines in 2013 and caused the most deaths of these five cyclones.

The Saffir-Simpson-Wind scale
The climate researchers explain that it has been suggested in the past that the particularly destructive tropical cyclone ‘Haiyan’ should be classified as category six. “But ‘Haiyan’ doesn’t seem to be an isolated incident.” The team calls for a change to the current Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale, with a category five for peak wind speeds of 70 to 86 meters per second and an additional category six above that.

The Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale was introduced in the United States in the early 1970s. Since 2010, wind speeds have been measured at a height of ten meters. While hurricanes generally travel very slowly, their rotating winds are very fast.

According to the ‘Proceedings’, the wind-based scale is only marginally relevant to many destruction factors. Nevertheless, it remains an important criterion for risk warnings. Adding a sixth category to the hurricane wind scale could also increase awareness of the dangers of major hurricanes due to global warming.

Source: Krone

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