Campaign almost over? – The Supreme Court decides on Trump’s candidacy

The US Supreme Court is negotiating whether Donald Trump will participate in the primaries for the Republican presidential candidate. During the hearing on Thursday (4 p.m. CET), the judges will consider a request from the ex-president and the current presidential candidate.

Trump turned to the court to overturn a ruling by the state of Colorado that disqualified him from participating in the 2021 primaries due to his role in the attack on the US Capitol.

Did Trump participate in an insurrection?
The US Constitution regulates who can become president. The person must be a natural-born citizen, at least 35 years old, and have lived in the United States for at least 14 years. So far so clear. But then there is the so-called 14th Amendment prohibition on insurrection. It basically means that no one who has previously participated as a civil servant in an uprising against the state may hold a higher office in the state.

77-year-old Donald Trump wants to return to the White House after the presidential elections in November. But the Republican’s opponents argue that his behavior surrounding the storming of the Capitol has forfeited his right to run for president again. With the necessary effort they were successful – for example in the state of Colorado. The top elections supervisor in Maine made a similar decision.

Efforts to disqualify Trump failed in Michigan and Minnesota. Similar lawsuits are still ongoing elsewhere. Now it is the turn of the highest court in the land.

Supreme Court decides US elections
This Thursday, the nine justices in Washington will hear arguments from both sides, but a decision will not be made until later. But it is now up to the Supreme Court to decide how the US presidential election will proceed. The issue of Trump’s exclusion from the presidency is not only legally difficult; it is politically explosive, could further divide American society in an election year and push the political system to its limits.

The highest court in the land likes to appear impartial and unbiased. During his time in office, Trump had the opportunity to serve three positions as a Supreme Court justice. He chose ultraconservative and deeply religious candidates and shifted the court’s majority far to the right, possibly for decades. Only three of the nine judges belong to the liberal camp.

Trump’s judges are turning back the clock
In this configuration, the court has often ruled in favor of religious plaintiffs, weakened protections for minorities, and overturned the right to abortion, which had been in place for some fifty years. Research shows that the court has lost support among the population. However, it did not always decide what Trump wanted – for example when it came to the release of his tax documents.

In the case of Trump’s suitability as president, roughly three questions need to be answered:

1. The first is whether the Constitution’s insurrection clause applies to presidents. Although the passage mentions some examples of such higher offices, it does not explicitly mention the office of president.
2. Second, it must be clarified whether the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021 should be considered an insurrection. Trump supporters stormed the Houses of Parliament in Washington. Trump had previously incited his supporters during a speech.
3. Third, if this event were to be considered an insurrection, it would need to be clarified whether Trump participated.

However, experts assume that the court will not answer any of these questions. Because the matter is too politically charged for that. “I think there will be a technical judgment,” said law professor Aaron Tang of Stanford University in California in an interview with the German news agency. This means that the Supreme Court would avoid the central questions so as not to make itself politically vulnerable. “You can look at this as a fallback, a way for the Supreme Court to rule for Trump that is not politically explosive.” Tang expects the court to side with Trump.

Responsibility to the United States Congress
Tang and other lawyers suspect the Supreme Court could consider Congress to have jurisdiction over the issue of presidential eligibility. One possible ruling could mean that the U.S. Congress must first pass a corresponding law before the insurrection clause can be invoked. Trump’s opponents argue that no law is needed to implement the Constitution. And some experts warn against passing the buck to Congress in such polarized times. Even lawyers who have taken a position on Trump’s behalf at the Supreme Court are not thinking much about such a solution.

There are many more ways in which the judge can ultimately make a ruling. It could also declare Trump fit for president while still taking a position on the nature of the storming of the Capitol. The justices might as well decide that the insurrection clause doesn’t apply to presidents.

There are fears of violence if Trump is sentenced
And of course, there is also the possibility that the Supreme Court will rule that Trump is unfit to be president. He could then continue to run for office, but under certain legal circumstances his name might also appear on the ballot. But it is unlikely that the Republican will become US president again.

Experts say it is completely unlikely that the Supreme Court will make such a ruling. Some also fear political violence – the storm on the Capitol showed how far Trump and his supporters are willing to go. For lawyer Tang, such a verdict would be a “world-changing decision.”