In an analytical article, the Bank of Spain indicates that the impact of a potential commercial shutdown would also add 1.4 percentage points to inflation.
Euskaraz irakurri: Errusiaren eta EBren arteko merkataritza harremana eteteak Espainiaren BPG % 1.8 murriztuko luke
The Bank of Spain believes that a hypothetical commercial closure between Russia and the European Union would “significant” negative impact on GDP1.8% in the first year, although it would be “significantly lower” than in the rest of the European countries.
In an analytical article published on Tuesday, the Bank of Spain indicated that the impact of a potential commercial shutdown would also add 1.4 percentage points to the inflation
If the interruption was exclusively from energy importsthe effect on GDP would be less, between 0.8% and 1.4% during the first year, and also on inflation, with an increase between 0.8 and 1.2 percentage points.
In the most likely scenario of a suspension of energy imports, the impact on GDP would be 1.1% and inflation would increase 0.9 percentage points.
“Effects on our economy would be noticeably smaller”
However, the article adds that the dependence on Russian energy in Spain is less than in the rest of the European economies“The effects on our economy would be noticeably smaller.”
The effect of the energy freeze on the EU as a whole would be between: 2.5% and 4.2% of GDPwhich have a greater influence than Spain in the eastern countries and in the three major economies: Germany (between 1.9% and 3.4%), France (between 1.2% and 2%) or Italy (between 2. .3% and 3.9%).
In addition, this impact would be exacerbated by “the spread of the disruption through global production chains”, particularly intense in certain sectors of activity, such as transport, base metals or chemical industries.
In this way, the vehicle manufacturing or pharmaceutical manufacturing of the Spanish state, which is highly dependent on Europe, would be “indirectly exposed to production constraints due to energy constraints” in the EU.
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Source: EITB
I’m Wayne Wickman, a professional journalist and author for Today Times Live. My specialty is covering global news and current events, offering readers a unique perspective on the world’s most pressing issues. I’m passionate about storytelling and helping people stay informed on the goings-on of our planet.
