Despite US arms support – ISW analysis: Russian attacks will increase

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Western military experts expect an increase in Russian missile and drone attacks in the coming weeks in light of billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine approved by the US House of Representatives on Saturday.

According to the American Institute for War Studies (ISW) in Washington, Moscow will benefit from the current material and personnel limitations of the Ukrainian military and from the unusually dry spring until the window closes and American aid arrives.

However, the Russians have so far achieved only individual tactical successes in offensive operations and no breakthrough on the front line, the ISW experts said in their analysis on Saturday (local time).

Danger of an operationally significant advance
It is expected that Russia will mainly take advantage of the weakened Ukrainian air defense and intensify the attacks with glide bombs. There remains a risk of an operationally significant Russian advance into the war zone in southern and eastern Ukraine in the coming weeks.

Kiev wants sovereignty in its own airspace again
After an improvement in Ukrainian air defenses, the risk to the Russians will increase, it was said. Ukraine expects not only anti-aircraft systems from the West and their associated missiles, but also American F16 fighter jets. The goal of the leadership in Kiev is to regain sovereignty over its own airspace.

Weapons aid won’t arrive for a few weeks
The ISW experts also referred to statements by US officials according to which the anti-aircraft missiles and artillery shells with a size of 155 millimeters, which Ukraine urgently needs, could be transferred from US warehouses in Europe. Nevertheless, it will take weeks before the aid actually reaches Ukraine.

Green light for US aid package to Ukraine
After months of blockade, the US House of Representatives in Washington voted on Saturday (local time) for an aid package of around 61 billion dollars (the equivalent of around 57 billion euros) for Kiev. The necessary Senate approval is still pending, but is considered certain.

ISW: Turning point for military aid in the war
According to ISW experts, US military aid is a turning point in the war in Ukraine; However, important decisions await in Russia, the West and Ukraine that will determine the further course and outcome of the fighting.

“The Kremlin remains able to further mobilize its economy and population in support of its campaign to destroy the Ukrainian state and identity, and it may decide to make unpopular decisions at home if it sees fit.”

Source: Krone

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