The mask break that is prevalent in many places could soon end again. Because the infections with the corona virus are increasing again and the latest forecasts predict an increase for the coming week. The reasons are clear. Contact behavior has changed due to more frequent events and increased travel around the holidays in recent weeks and immunity among the population is also declining.
The increase in new corona infections in Austria was already visible at the end of May. This is now also confirmed in the current Covid forecast, which was announced on Wednesday. The consortium expects a further increase in the number of cases in the coming week.
At 1.05, the effective number of reproductions is again above 1, the proportion of virus variants BA.4/5 continues to rise and is currently at 16 percent. This more contagious subvariant already has a reproduction number of 1.44.
Declining immunity and end of measures
Wednesday’s update from the model computer of the Vienna University of Technology, MedUni Vienna and Gesundheit Österreich GmbH (GÖG) expects a seven-day incidence in the range of 246 to 405 cases per 100,000 population for next Wednesday, with an average of 307 cases being assumed. . The lowest incidence is expected in Styria (120-200) and the highest incidence in Vienna (400-660). The incidence is currently 220. On June 15, the experts expect an average of almost 4,000 new infections per day.
According to the experts, the renewed increase was expected for a longer period of time due to the declining immunity of the Austrian population – the BA.2 immunity rate is currently estimated at 61 percent – but the speed of the current trend reversal cannot be explained by this alone. In detail, according to AGES, the effective number of reproductions has increased from 0.83 (05/05/2022) to 1.05 (06/04/2022) over the past ten days. This means that 100 infected people infect an average of 105 people with the corona virus. According to the experts, the increase is due to the influence of several factors.
The proportion of BA.4/5 virus variants continues to increase. However, there were also increases in states with relatively low BA.4/5 prevalence. More frequent events and increased travel around the holidays in recent weeks have changed contact behaviour, i.e. more contacts are taking place again. The relaxation measures – the end of the mask obligation and school tests – also have an effect in this direction. However, the scientists emphasized that none of the explanatory factors mentioned can be identified as the cause of these dynamics.
More patients expected
The growth advantage of the BA.4/5 variants compared to the previous variants is currently estimated at about 50 percent. The variant specific reef is 1.44 (within week 20-22). This means that 100 infected people infect 144 other people. Over the same period, BA.2’s effective reproduction number rose from about 0.86 to 0.96, the experts explain.
The increase also has an effect on hospitals: after the previous decrease, the experts expect a further increase in the number of Covid patients and a decrease in the number of seriously ill patients in intensive care is also expected. The two-week forecast for normal ward coverage assumes an increase from 479 patients on Tuesday to 539 (mean value) on June 22. In intensive care units, the number of beds infected by infected persons is likely to decrease from 42 to an average of 39 during this period. The plaque prognosis does not distinguish between people whose hospitalization is causally due to Covid-19 and people who are originally hospitalized. were admitted because of a different diagnosis.
Source: Krone
I am Ida Scott, a journalist and content author with a passion for uncovering the truth. I have been writing professionally for Today Times Live since 2020 and specialize in political news. My career began when I was just 17; I had already developed a knack for research and an eye for detail which made me stand out from my peers.
