Corona in wastewater – wave rises, expert urgently advises to stimulate

Because the surge occurred one to two months earlier than last summer, he says in the current APA interview, that means an expected surge in cases (as occurred last year in late fall and especially in November/December) could occur sooner.

Increase already in June
In 2023, an initially slow increase in wastewater data at a relatively low level was only recorded from around August.

This year, after the extremely high winter wave and a very quiet spring, the wastewater levels of Covid have risen significantly in June and now July. The number of cases is currently at a significantly higher level than in August of the previous year, as the geneticist who last worked at the Institute for Molecular Biotechnology (IMBA) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW) recalled.

“If you already see that there is so much potential, you have to assume that the wave will come earlier than last year.” That is why you should also start vaccinating early: “Since it takes a few weeks for the vaccination to arrive, I don’t think it is worth vaccinating at the same time as the flu,” Elling said, noting that the flu season starts much later.

Poor vaccination rate
He also pointed out that there was a low vaccination rate in Austria last year – and he sees no signs that politicians are making efforts to counteract this. Even with the National Council elections in the autumn, it can be assumed that hardly anyone will raise the issue of vaccinations, Ellings fears.

“We should have set this up a long time ago,” says the molecular biologist, who sees the need for a vaccination campaign. The supply of Covid vaccinations in the private sector also functioned poorly. Austria has ordered more than a million vaccine doses this year and recommends vaccination for everyone aged twelve and over, especially those aged 60 and over. This requires appropriate logistics in communication and administration. So you should also think about how to organize it better this year. The Ministry of Health recently said that vaccinations should be carried out in private practice (with doctors), as was the case recently.

New variant KP.3
Elling sees the reasons for the early increase in the number of Covid cases on the one hand in the fact that the immunity of the population has decreased – on the one hand due to the low vaccination rate, but also because the peak of the last wave (December 2023) took place more than six months ago. However, in 2023 there was also a spring wave and later the immunity of the population decreased. A lot of ‘fuel’ has already accumulated in the sense that immunity has decreased, says Elling. A ‘high risk of infection’ seems to have accumulated.

The expert also referred to the new variants, which have a growth advantage over the XBB and JN.1 variants that dominate in winter. After the so-called FLiRT variants (KP.1.1, KP.2), the JN.1 daughter variant KP.3 (and its daughter variants) is currently gaining ground internationally and also in Austria (the so-called FLuQE variants, which another compared to FLiRT has a growth advantage). It is possible that there is now a high plateau of infections in late summer and that there will not be such a high peak in the winter wave as last December, says Elling – but that is very speculative and uncertain.

Only available from Pfizer
The vaccine ordered by the Ministry of Health is initially only that of the manufacturer Biontech-Pfizer (Comirnaty Omicron JN.1), which is tailored to the JN.1 variant.

However, the US FDA has now advised manufacturers to adapt the vaccines – if possible – to the KP.2 virus strain. It is currently impossible to estimate whether such an adapted vaccine will be available in Europe or Austria.

Besides the mRNA vaccine from Biontech, Austria has not yet ordered any other vaccines.