“Clear Warning” – Does Kazakhstan Face the Same Fate as Ukraine?

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If the countries of the former Soviet Union oppose the Kremlin, they risk the fate of Ukraine, according to Vladimir Putin. The statement is interpreted by experts as a “clear threat”. The danger of nuclear war is foreseeable, but Putin points out: “Everyone should know what we have”.

With his threat, the Russian president is responding to a statement by Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the leader of Kazakhstan, who told an economic forum in St. Petersburg live Friday that he does not recognize two pro-Russian rebel areas in the Donbass.

Putin would promptly hit back at the statement, “What is the Soviet Union? This is historical Russia.” He then praised Kazakhstan as a brotherly nation before adding a thinly veiled threat: “The absolutely the same could have happened to Ukraine, but they wouldn’t be our allies.”

An observer in Nur-Sultan, the capital of Kazakhstan, said Tokaev humiliated Putin in front of his supporters and said the threat was real: “He makes it clear to him that Kazakhstan could be Russia’s next prey.”

“It’s a clear threat”
Maximilian Hess, an associate of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, also said, “This is a clear threat.” Tokayev is particularly vulnerable as he relied on Putin’s backing in January to defeat rivals in the power struggle in Kazakhstan.

Other Kazakh analysts, such as Dimash Alzhanov, a Kazakh political scientist, were more skeptical of Putin’s testimony. “Kazakhstan is already firmly entrenched in the Russian sphere of influence. Putin does not need to restore the borders of the USSR to control it,” Alzhanov said.

Army is no match for Russia
Viewed from the north of Kazakhstan, however, an invasion is not an abstract concept: there are many metallic and rare earth deposits. One of the largest oil and gas projects, Karachaganak – in which Shell has an interest – is located near Uralsk, not far from the border with Russia. The Kazakh army is weak and, even if weakened, no match for the Russian army.

Last month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Kazakhstan of hosting US biological labs that could be used to build weapons, an accusation he also leveled against Ukraine and Georgia, Russia’s enemies.

Nuclear Weapons Concerns and Fears
Because of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, which has been going on for almost four months, many are concerned that in the worst case scenario, nuclear weapons could even be used. Moscow has always rejected this intention. Instead, Russia repeatedly emphasizes that, unlike the United States, it has no right of first attack enshrined in its military doctrine.

“We threaten nothing”
As soon as people react to statements by foreign politicians, it is immediately said that Russia is threatening someone, Putin said on Friday at the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg. However, unlike in the conversation with the Kazakh head of state, he added: “We are not threatening anything”, but recalled: “Everyone should know what we have and what we can use to protect our sovereignty.”

Source: Krone

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