Progress made – Will the Russian grain blockade come to an end?

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Negotiations to break the Russian grain blockade in Ukraine appear to be making progress. UN Security Council circles confirmed the possibility of a meeting between the warring parties with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in Turkey, possibly as early as next week. The talks are at a point where the UN chief would negotiate directly with the Russians and Ukrainians to negotiate a deal.

Diplomats in New York, however, warned against too much optimism: so far no agreement has been reached on the export of grain from Ukraine across the Black Sea. The mistrust between Moscow and Kiev is still very high and there are still a number of hurdles in the negotiations. Another open question is whether Russia is being sincere about its involvement in the negotiations, a Western diplomat said. The United Nations only officially announced that negotiations were underway.

Export blocked for weeks
The international community has been demanding for weeks that Russia allows the export of Ukrainian grain. Ukraine complains that its ports in the Black Sea are being blocked by the Russian navy. Both countries are among the largest wheat exporters and play an important role in global food security. The United Nations recently warned of the worst famine in decades.

In concrete terms, this concerns the export of 20 million tons of grain from Ukraine, mainly to North Africa and Asia, a large part of which is in the port of Odessa. This is currently being felt in Somalia, for example, where the UN is warning of a massive famine. Somalia gets 50 percent of its wheat imports from Ukraine, 35 percent from Russia. Time is of the essence because of the upcoming harvest: the UN recently said that there should be a deal by June, otherwise the storage capacity in Ukraine would not be sufficient.

Turkey in the role of mediator
For several weeks now, the United Nations and Turkey have been trying to mediate in the grain dispute and negotiate a package deal that also gives Russia the chance to bring its fertilizer to the world market. Military representatives of Russia and Turkey met in Moscow on Tuesday for talks. Turkey’s Anadolu news agency then reported, without citing specific sources, that all four sides would meet in Turkey “in the coming weeks.”

Ship and security issues
Diplomats say the biggest hurdle to an agreement is control of ships traveling through the Black Sea to Ukraine. For example, Russia wants to prevent weapons from being delivered to the country and reserves the right to search incoming ships itself. Kiev rejects that. A compromise proposal is the inspection by the Turkish navy led by the United Nations. Moscow has not yet agreed to this. Another question is how to ensure Ukraine’s security against Russian attacks if Kiev clears naval mines to protect its ports.

Source: Krone

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